SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL BEHAVIOUR OF ARRIVALS AND PRICES OF GROUNDNUT AND SUNFLOWER IN ANDHRA PRADESH
KrishiKosh
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Title |
SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL BEHAVIOUR OF ARRIVALS AND PRICES OF GROUNDNUT AND SUNFLOWER IN ANDHRA PRADESH
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Creator |
SREEKANTH MODI
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Contributor |
RAGHU RAM, P
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Subject |
markets, marketing, groundnuts, forecasting, selection, seasons, biological phenomena, economics, productivity, fruits
ANDHRA PRADESH, GROUNDNUT, SUNFLOWER |
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Description |
The present study “Spatial and Temporal Behaviour of Arrivals and Prices of Groundnut and Sunflower in Andhra Pradesh” was mainly aimed at to study the trend, seasonal fluctuations in arrivals and prices of groundnut and sunflower in major markets of Andhra Pradesh, study the response of prices on arrivals, forecast the prices of groundnut and sunflower and analyze the market integration with respect to prices of selected crops. For the present study, a multi-stage purposive sampling was adopted. The seven markets selected for the study were Kurnool, Adoni, Badepalli, Yemignur, Kadapa, Gadwal and Karimnagar for groundnut and Kurnool, Adoni, Badepalli, Yemignur, Kadapa, Gadwal and Siddipet for sunflower. The data pertained to the period from 2001 to 2010. Apart from using simple linear trend method, twelve months ratio to moving average method and regression analysis, ARIMA model were also used. There was an increasing trend in the prices of groundnut. The annual increase in prices of groundnut was found to be highest in Karimnagar market. In respect of sunflower also there was an increasing trend in the prices in all the selected markets and were found to be highly significant. The arrivals of groundnut were found to be highest in November and December as revealed by the indices in Adoni market. Highest arrivals of sunflower as revealed by the corresponding indices were in January in Adoni market. In Adoni market highest seasonal index was found in November for groundnut and lowest index was recorded in January. In Adoni market for sunflower the seasonal index was maximum in November. Badepalli market witnessed peak price index in August. The coefficient of multiple correlation (R2) was 0.64 in Kurnool market duly revealing that the independent variable, price contributed 64 per cent of change in arrivals of groundnut and was found statistically significant. Highest R2 of 0.68 was found in Kurnool market, duly depicting that independent variable, price contributed 68 per cent of change in arrivals of sunflower. The results of ARIMA model indicated the price range from Rs 3125 to Rs 2946 per quintal of groundnut pods in the selected markets for the period from July to December, 2010. The results of price forecast of sunflower indicated that they would range from Rs 1863 to Rs 2896 per quintal from July to December. When the forecasts were compared with the real time prices it was double exponential smoothing model which was found better in respect of majority of the markets viz., Adoni, Kadapa, Gadwal and Karimnagar for groundnut. In respect of sunflower forecasts the results obtained through single exponential smoothing model were close with the real time price for Adoni, Badepalli, Gadwal and Yemignur markets. There existed highest market integration between Karimnagar and Kurnool markets for groundnut and Yemignur and Badepalli markets for sunflower. In the case of groundnut lowest integration was between Badepalli and Kadapa and for sunflower it was between Adoni and Badepalli markets. Compared to groundnut markets, sunflower markets were better integrated. |
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Date |
2016-06-02T13:33:16Z
2016-06-02T13:33:16Z 2010-11 |
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Type |
Thesis
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Identifier |
http://krishikosh.egranth.ac.in/handle/1/66636
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Language |
en
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Relation |
D8959;
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Format |
application/pdf
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Publisher |
ACHARYA N.G. RANGA AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY
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