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STATISTICAL MODELS FOR FORECASTING THE PRODUCTION OF IMPORTANT FRUIT AND VEGETABLE CROP IN HIMACHAL PRADESH

KrishiKosh

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Title STATISTICAL MODELS FOR FORECASTING THE PRODUCTION OF IMPORTANT FRUIT AND VEGETABLE CROP IN HIMACHAL PRADESH
 
Creator ARUN, KUMAR
 
Contributor GUPTA, R.K.
 
Subject You have exceeded your usage quota. Please contact gshukla [at] iitk.ac.in
fruit and vegetable crop in Himachal Pradesh,Statistical models,forecasting
 
Description ABSTRACT
The present investigation entitled ?Statistical models for forecasting the production of important fruit and vegetable crop in Himachal Pradesh.? was undertaken in the Department of Basic Science, Dr. Y.S. Parmar University of Horticulture and Forestry, Nauni, Solan 173230 (H.P.) during 2013-2015. Last 18 years of secondary data based on area (ha) and production (MT) for mango and 40 years of secondary data based on area (ha) and production (MT) of potato for H.P is being used and different prediction models viz. autoregressive straight line, second degree parabola, exponential, modified exponential and gompertz were applied & tested. All the prediction models fitted well to the area of mango with high Adj. R2, low RMSE and low Thiel?s inequality coefficient (U) and the four prediction models fitted well to the mango production namely: Straight line, Second degree parabola, Gompert and 1st order autoregressive model was fitted best with high Adj. R2 and low RMSE and Thiel?s inequality coefficient (U). Second degree parabola and autoregressive models were best models to forecast the area and production of mango as per Adj. R2, RMSE and Thiel?s inequality coefficient (U). 1st order autoregressive model was fitted well to the area of potato as per Adj. R2 and RMSE and all prediction models fitted well to the potato production as suggested by Adj. R2, RMSE and Thiel?s inequality coefficient (U). On the basis of Adj. R2, RMSE and Thiel?s inequality coefficient (U) 1st order autoregressive model and second degree parabola were best to forecast the area and production of potato.
 
Date 2016-11-22T13:19:58Z
2016-11-22T13:19:58Z
2015
 
Type Thesis
 
Identifier 48357
http://krishikosh.egranth.ac.in/handle/1/86953
 
Language en
 
Format application/pdf