Record Details

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON DROUGHT OCCURRENCE IN WESTERN MAHARASHTRA

KrishiKosh

View Archive Info
 
 
Field Value
 
Title IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON DROUGHT OCCURRENCE IN WESTERN MAHARASHTRA
Ph.D.
 
Creator PATIL JYOTI PARASHARAM
 
Contributor A. Sarangi
 
Subject precipitation, weather hazards, climate, irrigation, climatic change, crops, environmental degradation, marketing, area, seasons
 
Description Climate change is a change in the statistical properties of the climate system when considered over long periods of time. It is being experienced with varying consequences around the globe . Studies indicate that monsoon rainfall pattern has been changing in India during the latter half of the Twentieth Century, thus increasing the risk of drought and flood damage to the country’s wet-season (kharif) crops. Pune district of Maharashtra experiences tropical monsoon, shows seasonal variation in rainfall occurrences and experiences frequent drought conditions. The present study was undertaken to investigate the impact of climate change on drought occurrences in Pune district, Maharashtra, India. The meteorological data pertaining to rainfall, temperature and other parameters were acquired for the 13 meteorological stations of Pune district from 1958 to 2004. The interface for ‘Climate Change Trend Analysis (CCTA)’ was developed in MATLAB® to analyze the trends in annual, seasonal (kharif) and monthly rainfall depths during kharif season rainfall using non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) and modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) trend test with the Sen’s slope estimator. It was observed that, the rainfall during kharif had been decreasing, June rainfall had been increasing while July rainfall had been decreasing at 99, 95 and 90% confidence level, respectively from 1958 to 2004. The changing rainfall trend during monsoon months necessitates judicious management of inputs for rainfed agriculture in Pune district. Further, drought assessment was carried out for the study area using standardized precipitation index (SPI) under present and future climate scenarios (2011-2050). Two different scenarios were generated using ClimGen weather generator. GCM downscaled rainfall data at 0.5o in lat-long grids within and around Pune district was also used for drought assessment in future. The standardized precipitation index using two parameter gamma distribution at 12 month scale of both ClimGen generated and CCA2 series suggested that more extreme and severe droughts will occur during 2011-2050 under CCA2 series as compared to the generated series. The SPI analysis of CGCM 3.1 gridded point data at 3 month scale was converted to the spatial variability map. It was observed from the variability map that majority of area under Pune district would experience moderate drought conditions 0 to 5 times during 2011-2050. It was imperative to assess potential impacts of drought occurrences on crop production. Therefore, a newly conceptualized index named as Standardized Effective Rainfall and Crop
ii
Evapotranspiration Index (SERCEI)” was developed for agricultural drought assessment which uses the climatic water balance derived from effective rainfall and crop evapotranspiration. The developed drought index SERCEI was validated for two rainfed crops i.e. pearl millet and groundnut grown in the Pune district. Yield deviation (%) from average and the SERCEI values for September resulted in correlation coefficient (r) of 0.52 for Pearl millet, and 0.79 for Groundnut. The SERCEI analysis for ClimGen generated future data set with climate change adjustment through GCM anomalies predicted more droughts as compared to the series generated without climate change adjustments. Moreover, an information system was developed using MATLAB® programming language and based on SERCEI was also developed for suggesting alternative land use and contingency plan as an adaptation measure to drought and enhancing productivity of the region. The results indicated that climate change will largely affect drought duration, magnitude and frequency in the study region and subsequently the availability of future water resources for agricultural production. Thus, sustainable agricultural water management measures and chalking out appropriate water conservation measures should be planned to mitigate future impacts of droughts in the Pune district.
 
Date 2016-03-11T17:01:09Z
2016-03-11T17:01:09Z
2013
 
Type Thesis
 
Identifier http://krishikosh.egranth.ac.in/handle/1/65102
 
Language en_US
 
Format application/pdf
 
Publisher IARI, DIVISION OF ENTOMOLOGY,NEW DELHI