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Market Dynamics and price forecasting of maize in North Karnataka-An Application of Arima Model

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Title Market Dynamics and price forecasting of maize in North Karnataka-An Application of Arima Model
 
Creator Sandesh.Haradi
 
Contributor H.S.Vijaykumar
 
Subject Agribusiness Management
 
Description Analysis of price and market arrivals overtime is important for formulating a sound
agricultural policy. Fluctuations in market arrivals largely contribute to price instability. Such
an analysis is also useful to farmers in order to decide the optimum time for disposing their
produce to their best advantage. In view of studying dynamics of market arrivals and prices, the
present study was undertaken by collecting monthly prices and arrivals of maize in five major
maize markets of North Karnataka for a period of 20 years (April-1989 to April-2009). An
increasing trend in arrivals and prices was observed in all the markets, but the quantum of
increase varied from one market to another. Price of maize was found to be highest during off
season (June-September) and lowest during harvest season (October-February). Since maize
can be grown in all the seasons, the arrivals were high during September to March. The higher
seasonal indices of prices were observed during June to September during which the arrivals
were found to be low. Uneven cycles were observed both in arrivals and prices in all the
markets. Response of maize arrivals to prices in all the markets, both in long run and in short
run, showed a positive relationship, which implied that as the price of maize increased, the
arrivals also increased. ARIMA analysis was employed to quantify the variation in prices and
also to forecast maize prices for the next 12 months. The price forecast in all the markets
showed an increasing value. Analysis of zero order correlation showed that there existed a
strong integration among all the maize markets. The analysis revealed that, storing maize and
selling during off season would help the producer in getting higher returns. Finally it was
recommended to disseminate the forecast prices to farmers for their advantage.
 
Date 2016-11-10T13:32:32Z
2016-11-10T13:32:32Z
2010
 
Type Thesis
 
Identifier http://krishikosh.egranth.ac.in/handle/1/84841
 
Format application/pdf
 
Publisher UAS, Dharwad