Record Details

Performance evaluation of yield crop forecasting models using weather index regression analysis

OAR@ICRISAT

View Archive Info
 
 
Field Value
 
Relation http://oar.icrisat.org/10136/
http://epubs.icar.org.in/ejournal/index.php/IJAgS/article/view/67673
 
Title Performance evaluation of yield crop forecasting models using weather index regression analysis
 
Creator Panwar, S
Singh, K N
Kumar, A
Paul, R K
Sarkar, S K
Gurung, B
Rathore, A
 
Subject Crop Yield
Statistical Models
Wheat
 
Description A crop forecast is a statement of the most likely magnitude of yield or production of a crop. It is made on the basis of known facts on a given date and it assumes that the weather conditions and damages during the remainder of the growing season will be about the same as the average of previous year. The present paper deals with use of non-linear regression analysis for developing wheat yield forecast model for Allahabad district (India). A novel statistical approach attempted in this study to use nonlinear models with different weather variables and their indices and compare them to identify a suitable forecasting model. Time series yield data of 40 years (1970-2010) and weather data for the year 1970-71 to 2009-10 have been utilized. The models have been used to forecast yield in the subsequent three years 2008-09 to 2009-10 (which were not included in model development). The approach provided reliable yield forecast about two months before harvest.
 
Publisher ICAR
 
Date 2017-02
 
Type Article
PeerReviewed
 
Format application/pdf
 
Language en
 
Rights —
 
Identifier http://oar.icrisat.org/10136/1/67673-169882-1-SM.pdf
Panwar, S and Singh, K N and Kumar, A and Paul, R K and Sarkar, S K and Gurung, B and Rathore, A (2017) Performance evaluation of yield crop forecasting models using weather index regression analysis. Indian Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 87 (2). pp. 270-272. ISSN 0019-5022