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Influence of upper ocean stratification interannual variability on tropical cyclones

DRS at CSIR-National Institute of Oceanography

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Title Influence of upper ocean stratification interannual variability on tropical cyclones
 
Creator Vincent, E.M.
Emanuel, K.A.
Lengaigne, M.
Vialard, J.
Madec, G.
 
Subject GEOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS
OCEANOGRAPHY AND LIMNOLOGY
METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY
METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY
 
Description Climate modes, such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), influence Tropical Cyclones ~ (TCs) interannual activity through their effect on large-scale atmospheric environment. These climate modes also induce interannual variations of subsurface oceanic stratification, which may also influence TCs. Changes in oceanic stratification indeed modulate the amplitude of TCs-induced cooling, and hence the negative feedback of air-sea interactions on the TC intensity. Here we use a dynamical downscaling approach that couples an axisymmetric TC model to a simple ocean model to quantify this interannual oceanic control on TC activity. We perform twin experiments with contrasted oceanic stratifications representative of interannual variability in each TC-prone region. While subsurface oceanic variations do not significantly affect the number of moderate (Category 3 or less) TCs, they do induce a 30% change of Category 5 TC-days globally, and a 70% change for TCs exceeding 85 m s2-1. TCs in the western Pacific and the southwestern Indian Ocean are most sensitive to oceanic interannual variability (with a 10 m s2-1 modulation of the intensity of strongest storms at low latitude), owing to large upper ocean variations in response to ENSO. These results imply that a representation of ocean stratification variability should benefit operational forecasts of intense TCs and the understanding of their climatic variability
 
Date 2017-09-27T13:07:38Z
2017-09-27T13:07:38Z
2014
 
Type Journal Article
 
Identifier Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, vol.6; 2014; 680-699
http://drs.nio.org/drs/handle/2264/5175
 
Language en
 
Rights Copyright [2014]. All efforts have been made to respect the copyright to the best of our knowledge. Inadvertent omissions, if brought to our notice, stand for correction and withdrawal of document from this repository
 
Publisher American Geophysical Union