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Forecasting of crop yield using weather parameters–two step nonlinear regression model approach

OAR@ICRISAT

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Relation http://oar.icrisat.org/10994/
http://epubs.icar.org.in/ejournal/index.php/IJAgS/article/view/84230
http://epubs.icar.org.in/ejournal/index.php/IJAgS/article/view/84230
 
Title Forecasting of crop yield using weather parameters–two step nonlinear regression model approach
 
Creator Panwar, S
Kumar, A
Singh, K N
Paul, R K
Gurung, B
Ranjan, R
Alam, N M
Rathore, A
 
Subject Agriculture
Crop Yield
Statistical Models
Climate Change
Statistics
 
Description Concept of the paper is firstly to remove the trend of crop yield and then to develop the forecasting models using
detrended yield. Not much work is available or development of forecast models or modelling due to their non-linear
behaviour. For that, in this paper, methodology developed for forecasting using nonlinear growth models, which
will help in forecasting yield, pest and disease incidences etc with high accuracy. Crop yield forecast models for
wheat crop have been developed (using non-linear growth models, linear models and weather indices approach with
weekly weather data) for different districts of Uttar Pradesh (UP). Weather Indices (WI) were obtained using above
two approaches. Weather indices based regression models were developed using weather indices as independent
variables while character under study such as crop yield was used as dependent variable for wheat crop, i.e. two step
non-linear forecast model. Technique of forecasting using non-linear approach and using weather indices will enrich
the knowledge in developing customized models on forecasting for different types of crops and for different locations.
The approach provided reliable yield forecast about two months before harvest.
 
Publisher ICAR
 
Date 2018-10
 
Type Article
PeerReviewed
 
Format application/pdf
 
Language en
 
Rights —
 
Identifier http://oar.icrisat.org/10994/1/Forecasting%20of%20crop%20yield%20using%20weather%20parameters.pdf
Panwar, S and Kumar, A and Singh, K N and Paul, R K and Gurung, B and Ranjan, R and Alam, N M and Rathore, A (2018) Forecasting of crop yield using weather parameters–two step nonlinear regression model approach. Indian Journal of Agricultural Sciences (TSI), 88 (10). pp. 1597-1599. ISSN 0019-5022