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Forecasting of growth rates of wheat yield of Uttar Pradesh through non-linear growth models

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Relation http://oar.icrisat.org/10997/
 
Title Forecasting of growth rates of wheat yield of Uttar Pradesh through non-linear growth models
 
Creator Panwar, S
Singh, K N
Kumar, A
Sarkar, S S
Paul, R
Rathore, A
Sivaramane, N
 
Subject Statistical Models
Wheat
Statistics
Indian Agriculture
 
Description Wheat production in India is about 70 million tonnes per year which counts for approximately 12 per cent of
world’s production. Being the second largest in population, it is also the second largest in wheat consumption after
China, with a huge and growing wheat demand. Major wheat growing states in India are Uttar Pradesh, Punjab,
Haryana, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Bihar. All of north is replenished with wheat cultivation. Uttar
Pradesh, the largest wheat growing region of the country, produces around 28 million tonnes of wheat and Bihar
produces around 5 million tonnes. The usual parametric approach for growth rate analysis is to assume multiplicative
error in the underlying nonlinear geometric model and then fit the linearized model by ‘method of least squares’. This
paper deals with a critical study of wheat yield of Uttar Pradesh with a non-linear approach. The available data of rice
during different years is taken into consideration and different statistical models are fitted for that. The time series
data on annual yield of wheat in UP from 1970-2010 were collected from various sources. Growth rates are computed
through non-linear models, viz. Logistic, Gompertz and Monomolecular models. Different nonlinear procedures
such as Gauss-Newton Method, Steepest-Descent Method, Levenberg-Merquadt Technique and Do Not Use Derivative
(DUD) Method were used in this study to estimate the nonlinear growth rates. The results showed that logistic model
performed better followed by Gompertz and monomolecular.
 
Publisher ICAR
 
Date 2016-07
 
Type Article
PeerReviewed
 
Format application/pdf
 
Language en
 
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Identifier http://oar.icrisat.org/10997/1/Forecasting%20of%20growth%20rates%20of%20wheat%20yield%20of%20Uttar%20Pradesh%20through%20non-linear%20growth%20models.pdf
Panwar, S and Singh, K N and Kumar, A and Sarkar, S S and Paul, R and Rathore, A and Sivaramane, N (2016) Forecasting of growth rates of wheat yield of Uttar Pradesh through non-linear growth models. Indian Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 84 (7). pp. 856-859.