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Key determinants of global land-use projections

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Title Key determinants of global land-use projections
 
Creator Stehfest, Elke
van Zeist, Willem-Jan
Valin, Hugo
Havlik, Petr
Popp, Alexander
Kyle, Page
Tabeau, Andrzej
Mason-D'Croz, Daniel
Hasegawa, Tomoko
Bodirsky, Benjamin L
Calvin, Katherine
Doelman, Jonathan C
Fujimori, Shinichiro
Humpenöder, Florian
Lotze-Campen, Hermann
van Meijl, Hans
Wiebe, Keith
 
Subject CLIMATE CHANGE
AGRICULTURE
FOOD SECURITY
 
Description Land use is at the core of various sustainable development goals. Long-term climate foresight studies have structured their recent analyses around five socio-economic pathways (SSPs), with consistent storylines of future macroeconomic and societal developments; however, model quantification of these scenarios shows substantial heterogeneity in land-use projections. Here we build on a recently developed sensitivity approach to identify how future land use depends on six distinct socio-economic drivers (population, wealth, consumption preferences, agricultural productivity, land-use regulation, and trade) and their interactions. Spread across models arises mostly from diverging sensitivities to long-term drivers and from various representations of land-use regulation and trade, calling for reconciliation efforts and more empirical research. Most influential determinants for future cropland and pasture extent are population and agricultural efficiency. Furthermore, land-use regulation and consumption changes can play a key role in reducing both land use and food-security risks, and need to be central elements in sustainable development strategies.
Peer Review
 
Date 2019-09-13T15:37:28Z
2019-09-13T15:37:28Z
2019-05-15
 
Type Journal Article
 
Identifier Stehfest E, van Zeist WJ, Valin H, Havlik P, Popp A, Kyle P, Tabeau A, Mason-D'Croz D, Hasegawa T, Bodirsky BL, Calvin K, Doelman JC, Fujimori S, Humpenöder F, Lotze-Campen H, van Meijl H, Wiebe K. 2019. Key determinants of global land-use projections. Nature Communications 10:2166.
2041-1723
https://hdl.handle.net/10568/103642
 
Language en
 
Rights CC-BY-4.0
 
Format 2166
 
Source Nature Communications