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Crop yield response to climate change varies with cropping intensity

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Title Crop yield response to climate change varies with cropping intensity
 
Creator Challinor, Andrew J.
Parkes B
Ramírez Villegas, Julián
 
Subject climate
agriculture
crop yield
crop modelling
land use
 
Description Projections of the response of crop yield to climate change at different spatial scales are known to vary. However, understanding of the causes of systematic differences across scale is limited. Here, we hypothesize that heterogeneous cropping intensity is one source of scale dependency. Analysis of observed global data and regional crop modelling demonstrate that areas of high vs. low cropping intensity can have systematically different yields, in both observations and simulations. Analysis of global crop data suggests that heterogeneity in cropping intensity is a likely source of scale dependency for a number of crops across the globe. Further crop modelling and a meta-analysis of projected tropical maize yields are used to assess the implications for climate change assessments. The results show that scale dependency is a potential source of systematic bias. We conclude that spatially comprehensive assessments of climate impacts based on yield alone, without accounting for cropping intensity, are prone to systematic overestimation of climate impacts. The findings therefore suggest a need for greater attention to crop suitability and land use change when assessing the impacts of climate change.
 
Date 2015-04
2015-01-15T08:23:34Z
2015-01-15T08:23:34Z
 
Type Journal Article
 
Identifier Challinor AJ, Parkes B, Ramirez-Villegas J. 2015. Crop yield response to climate change varies with cropping intensity. Global Change Biology
1365-2486
https://hdl.handle.net/10568/52989
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12808
 
Language en
 
Rights Copyrighted; all rights reserved
Limited Access
 
Publisher Wiley
 
Source Global Change Biology