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Towards a genotypic adaptation strategy for Indian groundnut cultivation using an ensemble of crop simulations

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Title Towards a genotypic adaptation strategy for Indian groundnut cultivation using an ensemble of crop simulations
 
Creator Ramírez Villegas, Julián
Challinor, Andrew J.
 
Subject yields
climate change
improvement
climate change adaptation
heat stress
crop modelling
simulation models
rendimiento
cambio climático
adaptación al cambio climático
estrés térmico
modelización de los cultivos
modelos de simulación
 
Description Climate change has been projected to significantly affect agricultural productivity and hence food availability in the coming decades. The uncertainty associated with projecting climate change impacts is a barrier to agricultural adaptation. Despite uncertainty quantification becoming more prominent in impact studies, the thorough quantification of more than one uncertainty source is not commonly exercised. This work focuses on Indian groundnut and uses the General Large Area Model for annual crops (GLAM) to investigate the response of groundnut under future climate scenarios, develop a genotypic adaptation strategy, and quantify the main uncertainty sources. Results suggest that despite large uncertainty in yield projections (to which crop- and climate-related sources contribute 46 and 54 %, respectively) no-regret strategies are possible for Indian groundnut. Benefits from genotypic adaptation were robust towards the choice of climate model, crop model parameters and bias-correction methods. Groundnut breeding for 2030 climates should be oriented toward increasing maximum photosynthetic rates, total assimilate partitioned to seeds, and, where enough soil moisture is available, also maximum transpiration rates. No benefit from enhanced heat stress tolerance was observed, though this trait may become important as warming intensifies. Managing yield variability remains a challenge for groundnut, suggesting that an integral approach to crop adaptation that includes year-to-year coping strategies as well as improvements in crop management is needed across all India.
 
Date 2016-09
2016-06-13T20:27:15Z
2016-06-13T20:27:15Z
 
Type Journal Article
 
Identifier Ramirez-Villegas, J; Challinor, A. J. 2016. Towards a genotypic adaptation strategy for Indian groundnut cultivation using an ensemble of crop simulations. Climatic Change. 138(1): 223-238.
https://hdl.handle.net/10568/75716
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