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Improving sorghum productivity under changing climatic conditions: A modelling approach

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Title Improving sorghum productivity under changing climatic conditions: A modelling approach
 
Creator Akinseye, Folorunso M
Ajeigbe, Hakeem A.
Sibiry Traoré, Pierre C.
Agele, Samuel O
Zemadim, Birhanu
Whitbread, Anthony M.
 
Subject agriculture
climate change
food security
 
Description Climate variability and change will have far reaching consequences for smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa, the
majority of whom depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. Crop modelling can help inform the improvement of
agricultural productivity under future climate. This study applies the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator
(APSIM) to assessing the impacts of projected climate change on two (early and medium maturing) sorghum varieties
under different management practices. Results show high model accuracy with excellent agreement between simulated
and observed values for crop phenology and leaf number per plant. The prediction of grain yield and total biomass of
an early maturing variety was fair RMSEn (22.9 and 23.1%), while that of the medium maturing was highly accurate
RMSEn (14.9 and 11.9%). Sensitivity analysis performed by changing the calibrated variables of key plant traits in the
model, showed higher significant yield change by+or - 10 % changed in radiation use efficiency, (RUE), coefficient
extinction (Coeff_ext) and Phyllocron (Phyllo) for early maturing variety while +or - 10 % changed in phyllochron
and RUE showed a significant yield change for the medium maturing variety. Under climate change scenerios using
RCP 8.5, the simulated yield for the early–maturing variety revealed high inter-annual variability and potential yield
loss of 3.3% at Bamako and 1% at Kano in the near-future (2010–2039) compared to baseline (1980–2009). The midcentury
(2040–2069) projected yield decline by 4.8% at Bamako and 6.2% at Kano compared to baseline (1980–2009).
On the contrary, the medium maturing variety indicated significantly yield gain with high yielding potential in both
climate regimes compared to the baseline period (1980–2009). The simulated grain yield increased by 7.2% at Bamako
and 4.6% at Kano, in the near-future (2010–2039) while in the mid-century (2040–2069) projected yield increase of
12.3% and 2% at Bamako and Kano compared to baseline (1980–2009). Adaptation strategies under climate change for
varying sowing dates in the near-future (2010–2039, indicated that June sowing had a higher positive yield gained over
July and August sowing for early maturing variety; July sowing simulated positive gained by 5 -11% over June and
August sowing for medium maturing variety in both locations. Similarly, under the mid-century (2040–2069), among
the sowing dates and in both locations, June sowing indicates lowest negative yield change over July and August
sowing for early maturing variety. However, for medium maturing variety, July sowing had the highest yield gain of
16% over June and August sowing at Bamako and June highest positive yield gained of 11.4% over July and August at
Kano. Our study has, therefore, demonstrated the capacity of APSIM model as a tool for testing management, plant
traits practices and adoption of improved variety for enhancing the adaptive capacity of smallholder farmers under
climate change in the Sudanian zone of West Africa. This approach offers a promising option to design more resilient
and productive farming systems for West Africa using the diverse sorghum germplasm available in the region.
 
Date 2019-02
2019-12-18T15:14:58Z
2019-12-18T15:14:58Z
 
Type Journal Article
 
Identifier Akinseye FM, Ajeigbe HA, Traore PCS, Agele SO, Zemadim B, Whitbread A. 2020. Improving sorghum productivity under changing climatic conditions: a modelling approach. Field Crop Research 246:107685.
0378-4290
https://hdl.handle.net/10568/106228
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2019.107685
PII-WA_CASCAID
 
Language en
 
Rights CC-BY-NC-ND-4.0
Open Access
 
Format 107685
 
Source Field Crops Research