| Abstract |
Rates of yield gain and returns to wheat breeding are estimated for Pakistan's Punjab in the period since the introduction of semidwarf varieties. Analysis of two comprehensive data sets indicates that wheat breeders have maintained a rate of yield gain in newer releases of semidwarf varieties of about 1% per year. Improved disease resistance of newer varieties may have also prevented a yield decline of the order of 0.25% per year. Yield gains on farms may be less (0.6% per year) because of slow diffusion of new varieties. Given costs of wheat research, returns to investment to wheat breeding have been above 20% and are over 15% even if all research costs at the national and international level are included. More rapid diffusion of new varieties in the Punjab could considerably increase returns to wheat research. |
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