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A SWAT modeling approach to assess the impact of climate change on consumptive water use in Lower Chenab Canal area of Indus basin

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Title A SWAT modeling approach to assess the impact of climate change on consumptive water use in Lower Chenab Canal area of Indus basin
 
Creator Awan, Usman
 
Contributor Liaqat, Umar Waqas
Choi, Minha
Ismail, Ali
 
Description Accurate assessment of spatio-temporal variations of consumptive water use (CWU) in large
irrigation schemes is crucial for several hydrological applications. This study is designed to evaluate
the impact of climate change on CWU in the Lower Chenab Canal (LCC) irrigation scheme of the
Indus basin irrigation system of Pakistan. A distributed hydrological model, the soil and water
assessment tool (SWAT), was spatially calibrated (2005–2009) and validated (2010–2012) for monthly
CWU. The estimated CWU using the SWAT model showed promising results (the coefficient of
determination (R2) ¼ 0.87 ± 0.06, Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE) ¼ 0.83 ± 0.06)) when
compared with CWU determined by the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm (R2 ¼ 0.87 ± 0.06,
NSE ¼ 0.83 ± 0.06). Future evaluation, performed by considering the representative concentration
pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios, showed that changes in temperature and
rainfall would significantly influence the CWU in the LCC scheme. Compared with the reference
period, annual water consumption in the basin would increase overall by 7% and 11% at the end of
2020 with monthly variations of –40% to 60% and –17% to 80% under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate
change scenarios, respectively. The water managers in the region have to consider this fluctuating
consumptive use in water allocation plans due to climate change for better management of available
water resources.
 
Date 2015-12-31
2017-02-22T22:58:55Z
2017-02-22T22:58:55Z
 
Type Journal Article
 
Identifier http://Hydrology Research
https://mel.cgiar.org/reporting/download/hash/DPa1RtKN
Usman Awan, Umar Waqas Liaqat, Minha Choi, Ali Ismail. (31/12/2015). A SWAT modeling approach to assess the impact of climate change on consumptive water use in Lower Chenab Canal area of Indus basin. Hydrology Research, 48 (2).
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11766/5867
Limited access
 
Language en
 
Rights CC-BY-NC-4.0
 
Format PDF
 
Publisher IWA Publishing
 
Source Hydrology Research;48,(2015)