| Abstract |
Climate change and increasing climatic variability have raised widespread concern, although the implications of these trends are not well understood. Even so, it is already possible to envision some of the difficulties that could arise for agriculture, such as a greater incidence and intensity of drought and high temperatures (e.g., in many areas of sub-Saharan Africa) and a greater risk of flooding (e.g., in Asia, especially the Indo-Gangetic Plains). The challenge of dealing with climate change and increased climatic variability is intensified by: insufficient information on how climate trends will affect the suitability of specific crops and cropping practices in specific areas; insufficient information on how climate trends will affect the incidence and evolution of diseases and pests in specific areas; a lack of appropriate crop varieties and agronomic practices for more variable and more risky agriculture; the continuing growth in demand for food in developing countries, driven by population increase and, to a lesser extent, income growth; and a declining natural resource base, in which soil fertility is increasingly depleted and water is becoming scarce. |
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