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Ex ante impact assessment and seasonal climate forecasts: status and issues

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Title Ex ante impact assessment and seasonal climate forecasts: status and issues
 
Creator Thornton, Philip K.
 
Subject ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT
CLIMATIC FACTORS
 
Description The field of ex ante impact assessment has been receiving increasing attention in recent
years, due in part to the rapidly changing nature of funding for agricultural research and the shifts
that have occurred in what is expected of the international agricultural research community. Ex ante
studies are often carried out to provide information to assist in the allocation of scarce research
resources to activities that are efficient in some way, or that best match donors’ development objectives.
In practice, impact assessment is often contentious and usually difficult. Despite this, a wide
range of tools has been developed for ex ante impact assessment, and these are used routinely in
many different areas. Here, various ex ante impact assessment methods are outlined that may be
used to provide aggregated information at the scale of the region or society. Also discussed is how
technological and policy changes associated with seasonal climate forecasts in developing countries
can be assessed through a combination of these methods. Recent developments in quantitative
modelling, and the availability of high-resolution regional and global data sets, could in the future
contribute significantly to the identification of niches where seasonal climate forecasts could help
vulnerable people cope with variability, with concomitant impacts on the alleviation of poverty.
 
Date 2010-04-13T20:48:50Z
2010-04-13T20:48:50Z
2006-12-21
 
Type Journal Article
 
Identifier Thornton, P.K. 2006. Ex ante impact assessment and seasonal climate forecasts: status and issues. Climate Research. 33: 55-65
https://hdl.handle.net/10568/1216
 
Language en
 
Format application/pdf
 
Source Climate Research