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Murray-Darling Basin Sustainable Yields Project. SIMHYD Daily Grid Cell and Subcatchment Runoff - Future Global Warming Scenarios

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Title Murray-Darling Basin Sustainable Yields Project. SIMHYD Daily Grid Cell and Subcatchment Runoff - Future Global Warming Scenarios
 
Creator Jai Vaze
 
Subject Climate Change Processes
 
Description The lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model, SIMHYD, with a Muskingum routing method is used to estimate daily runoff for 0.05° x 0.05° grid cells (~5 km x 5km) across the entire MDB. The adopted rainfall-runoff modelling method provides a consistent basis (that is automated and reproducible) for modelling historical runoff across the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) and for assessing the potential impacts of climate change and development on future runoff.

The future climate scenario (Scenario C) is used to assess the range of likely climate conditions around the year 2030. Forty-five future climate variants, each with 112 years of daily climate sequences, are used. The future climate variants come from scaling the 1895 to 2006 climate data to represent ~2030 climate, based on analyses of 15 global climate models (GCMs) and three global warming scenarios.

As the future climate series (Scenario C) is obtained by scaling the historical daily climate series from 1895 to 2006 (Scenario A), the daily climate series for Scenarios A and C have the same length of data (112 years) and the same sequence of daily climate. Scenario C is therefore not a forecast climate at 2030, but a 112-year daily climate series based on 1895 to 2006 data adjusted to match projected global temperatures at ~2030 relative to ~1990.
 
Publisher CSIRO
 
Date 2018-10-04
 
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Identifier csiro:5442
 
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