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Time Series Analysis of CMIP5 Model and Observed Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Along Indian Coastal Zones

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Relation http://eprints.cmfri.org.in/13971/
https://www.jcronline.org/doi/full/10.2112/SI86-035.1
10.2112/SI86-035.1
 
Title Time Series Analysis of CMIP5 Model and Observed Sea Surface
Temperature Anomaly Along Indian Coastal Zones
 
Creator Joseph, Dhanya
Benjamin, Liya
Rojith, G
Zacharia, P U
George, Grinson
 
Subject Climate change
Seawater Analysis
 
Description Analysis of the time series Sea Surface Temperature (SST) variations is a key element in understanding the climate
change impacts on the phenology, trophodynamics, distribution, and catch of commercial marine fish species. As
SST projections are mostly model dependent, the discrepancy in the model and observed values needs to be
elucidated so as to derive accurate interpretations and conclusions. In this paper, the decadal and seasonal variations
of SST anomaly over the four coastal zones of India were analysed. The selected period of the study is from 1968 to
2017 and the data obtained from the International Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Sets (ICOADS) and Max
Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) was used. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5)
model data were used for comparison with the observed value. The linear trend of observed and modelled values was
inferred using the least square method for four seasons. The seasonal variation of SST anomaly of observed data in
four coastal zones of India reveals that Northeast zone exhibits the least trend of warming in all seasons, whereas
Northwest zone shows the highest trend of warming. SST anomaly of the first decade in all zones exhibited negative
values in all seasons, while last decade shows positive value, indicating warming trend. In other decades, no uniform
SST trend for all seasons was observed. However, the Northeast zone is exceptional with negative anomaly during all
decades. The warming trend was observed in all coasts for both model and observed values. The model and observed
SST anomaly follows an almost similar trend, but with noticeable differences in values among both. Owing to the
differences in the model and observed values, it could be emphasised that error corrections needs to be applied in
futuristic SST projections and related studies of Indian fisheries.
 
Date 2019
 
Type Article
PeerReviewed
 
Format text
 
Language en
 
Identifier http://eprints.cmfri.org.in/13971/1/Journal%20of%20Coastal%20Research_2019_Grinson%20George_Time%20Series%20Analysis%20of%20CMIP5%20Model.pdf
Joseph, Dhanya and Benjamin, Liya and Rojith, G and Zacharia, P U and George, Grinson (2019) Time Series Analysis of CMIP5 Model and Observed Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Along Indian Coastal Zones. Journal of Coastal Research, 86. pp. 239-247.