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Modelling climate change impacts on maize yields under low nitrogen input conditions in sub‐Saharan Africa

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Relation http://oar.icrisat.org/11565/
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15261
doi:10.1111/gcb.15261
 
Title Modelling climate change impacts on maize yields under low nitrogen input conditions in sub‐Saharan Africa
 
Creator Falconnier, G N
Corbeels, M
Boote, K J
Affholder, F
Adam, M
MacCarthy, D S
Ruane, A C
Nendel, C
Whitbread, A M
Justes, E
Ahuja, L R
Akinseye, F M
Alou, I N
Amouzou, K A
Anapalli, S S
Baron, C
Basso, B
Baudron, F
Bertuzzi, P
Challinor, A J
Chen, Y
Deryng, D
Elsayed, M L
Faye, B
Gaiser, T
Galdos, M
Gayler, S
Gerardeaux, E
Giner, M
Grant, B
Hoogenboom, G
Ibrahim, E S
Kamali, B
Kersebaum, K C
Kim, S H
van der Laan, M
Leroux, L
Lizaso, J I
Maestrini, B
Meier, E A
Mequanint, F
Ndoli, A
Porter, C H
Priesack, E
Ripoche, D
Sida, T
Singh, U
Smith, W
Srivastava, A
Sinha, S
Tao, F
Thorburn, P J
Timlin, D
Traore, B
Twine, T
Webber, H
 
Subject Crop Modelling
Smallholder Agriculture
Maize
Climate Change
 
Description Smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) currently grow rainfed maize with
limited inputs including fertilizer. Climate change may exacerbate current production
constraints. Crop models can help quantify the potential impact of climate change
on maize yields, but a comprehensive multimodel assessment of simulation accuracy
and uncertainty in these low-input systems is currently lacking. We evaluated
the impact of varying [CO2], temperature and rainfall conditions on maize yield, for
different nitrogen (N) inputs (0, 80, 160 kg N/ha) for five environments in SSA, including
cool subhumid Ethiopia, cool semi-arid Rwanda, hot subhumid Ghana and
hot semi-arid Mali and Benin using an ensemble of 25 maize models. Models were
calibrated with measured grain yield, plant biomass, plant N, leaf area index, harvest
index and in-season soil water content from 2-year experiments in each country to
assess their ability to simulate observed yield. Simulated responses to climate change
factors were explored and compared between models. Calibrated models reproduced
measured grain yield variations well with average relative root mean square
error of 26%, although uncertainty in model prediction was substantial (CV = 28%).
Model ensembles gave greater accuracy than any model taken at random. Nitrogen
fertilization controlled the response to variations in [CO2], temperature and rainfall.
Without N fertilizer input, maize (a) benefited less from an increase in atmospheric
[CO2]; (b) was less affected by higher temperature or decreasing rainfall; and (c) was
more affected by increased rainfall because N leaching was more critical. The model
intercomparison revealed that simulation of daily soil N supply and N leaching plays
a crucial role in simulating climate change impacts for low-input systems. Climate
change and N input interactions have strong implications for the design of robust
adaptation approaches across SSA, because the impact of climate change in low input systems will be modified if farmers intensify maize production with balanced nutrient
management.
 
Publisher Wiley
 
Date 2020-06
 
Type Article
PeerReviewed
 
Format application/pdf
 
Language en
 
Identifier http://oar.icrisat.org/11565/1/Falconnier_et_al_2020_GCB.PDF
Falconnier, G N and Corbeels, M and Boote, K J and Affholder, F and Adam, M and MacCarthy, D S and Ruane, A C and Nendel, C and Whitbread, A M and Justes, E and Ahuja, L R and Akinseye, F M and Alou, I N and Amouzou, K A and Anapalli, S S and Baron, C and Basso, B and Baudron, F and Bertuzzi, P and Challinor, A J and Chen, Y and Deryng, D and Elsayed, M L and Faye, B and Gaiser, T and Galdos, M and Gayler, S and Gerardeaux, E and Giner, M and Grant, B and Hoogenboom, G and Ibrahim, E S and Kamali, B and Kersebaum, K C and Kim, S H and van der Laan, M and Leroux, L and Lizaso, J I and Maestrini, B and Meier, E A and Mequanint, F and Ndoli, A and Porter, C H and Priesack, E and Ripoche, D and Sida, T and Singh, U and Smith, W and Srivastava, A and Sinha, S and Tao, F and Thorburn, P J and Timlin, D and Traore, B and Twine, T and Webber, H (2020) Modelling climate change impacts on maize yields under low nitrogen input conditions in sub‐Saharan Africa. Global Change Biology (TSI). pp. 1-23. ISSN 1354-1013