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Modeling the potential impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies on groundnut production in India

OAR@ICRISAT

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Relation http://oar.icrisat.org/11723/
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145996
doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145996
 
Title Modeling the potential impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies on groundnut production in India
 
Creator Kadiyala, M D M
Nedumaran, S
Padmanabhan, J
Gumma, M K
Gummadi, S
Srigiri, S R
Robertson, R
Whitbread, A M
 
Subject Climate Adaptation
GIS Techniques/Remote Sensing
Groundnut
Climate Change
 
Description Groundnut is one of the significant sources of oil, food, and fodder in India. It is grown in marginal arid and semiarid
agro-ecosystems with wide yield fluctuations due to spatial variability of rainfall and soil. Climate change,
which is predicted to increase the intra- and inter-annual rainfall variability will further constrain the groundnut
economy in India besides the global and domestic economic, social and policy changes. Through this study we
aim to examine the biophysical and social economic impacts of climate change on groundnut production and
prices to provide a comprehensive analysis of how agriculture and the food system will be affected. Using
projected climate data for India, we estimated the biophysical impacts of climate change on groundnut during
mid-century using representative concentration pathway (RCP 8.5) scenario. We examined the impacts of
changes in population and income besides environmental factors on groundnut productivity. This is to highlight
the importance of holistic assessment of biophysical and socioeconomic factors to better understand climate
change impacts. Modelled projections show that by 2050, climate change under an optimistic scenario will result
in−2.3 to 43.2% change in groundnut yields across various regions in India when climate alone was factored in.
But the change in groundnut yields ranged from −0.9% to 16.2% when economic (population and income) and
market variables (elasticities, trade, etc.) were also considered. Similarly, under pessimistic climate change scenario,
the percent change in groundnut yields would be −33.7 to 3.4 with only the climate factored in and
−11.2 to 4.3 with the additional economic and market variables included. This indicates the sensitivity of climate
 
Publisher Elsevier
 
Date 2021-02
 
Type Article
PeerReviewed
 
Format application/pdf
 
Language en
 
Identifier http://oar.icrisat.org/11723/1/03_potential%20impacts_Climate%20change_GN%20production.pdf
Kadiyala, M D M and Nedumaran, S and Padmanabhan, J and Gumma, M K and Gummadi, S and Srigiri, S R and Robertson, R and Whitbread, A M (2021) Modeling the potential impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies on groundnut production in India. Science of The Total Environment (TSI), 776. pp. 1-11. ISSN 0048-9697