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Time series modeling for forecasting the adoption behaviour of shrimp farmers

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Relation http://eprints.cmfri.org.in/7120/
 
Title Time series modeling for forecasting the adoption behaviour of shrimp farmers
 
Creator Swathi Lekshmi, P S
Balasubramani, N
Karthikeyan, C
Deboral Vimala, D
 
Subject Socio Economic and Extension
Prawn and Prawn fisheries
Fishing Community
 
Description Commercial shrimp culture has emerged as a prominent sector of the coastal economy of India by virtue of the
foreign exchange returns, rural employment it generates, and the economic viability of the enterprise and high
market demand for the produce. The present study was conducted in Nellore and Nagapattinam districts a/India 10
forecast the adoption a/scientific technologies for a period of 17 years from 2004-2020, by the shrimp farmers using
time series statistical modeling. The background data collected from 1997 to 2003 on the adoption behaviour of
the farmers formed the database for predicting the adoption behaviour of the technologies. The study revealed that
of the two statistical methods employed, namely Holt linear model and Holt exponential smoothing model, the
goodness of fit generated by the Holt linear model with an R2 value 0/0.97 exhibited a higher degree of model
adequacy over the Holt exponential smoothing model which revealed that in the years 2019 and 2020, the overall
extent of adoption exceeded 100 percent which implies the development of new technologies by the research system
and its subsequent adoption by the farmers. Besides factors such as changes in demography, demands in the export
and local markets would motivate the shrimp fanners in future to adopt more of the improved technologies for
getting higher yields.
 
Date 2008
 
Type Article
PeerReviewed
 
Format application/pdf
 
Language en
 
Identifier http://eprints.cmfri.org.in/7120/1/181-INDIAN_RES.JOURNAL_OF_EXT_.EDU.2008.pdf
Swathi Lekshmi, P S and Balasubramani, N and Karthikeyan, C and Deboral Vimala, D (2008) Time series modeling for forecasting the adoption behaviour of shrimp farmers. Indian Research Journal of Extension Education, 8 (2 & 3). pp. 38-41.