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Forecasting quarterly landings of total fish and major pelagic fishes and modelling the impacts of climate change on Bombay duck along India’s north-western Gujarat coast

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Title Forecasting quarterly landings of total fish and major pelagic fishes and modelling the impacts of climate change on Bombay duck along India’s north-western Gujarat coast
 
Creator Yadav, V K
Jahageerdar, S
Adinarayana, J
 
Subject ANN
ARIMA
Bombay duck
Climate change
Forecast
SST
 
Description 557-565
Quarterly landings or catches of total fishes and the major pelagic fish species, were forecasted using the methods and models viz. autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), non-linear autoregressive (NAR) artificial neural network (ANN), autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous inputs (ARIMAX), non-linear autoregressive with external (exogenous) inputs (NARX) artificial neural network. The models were also developed by considering only two important variables (differ for total fish and selected fish species) obtained from the ANN model. These simplified models proved nearly as good in their predictions. Simulated sea surface temperature (SST) for the A2 climate change scenario was used as an input for the NARX model to estimate the catches of Bombay duck over a short term (2020 – 2025) and a long term (2030 – 2050) with the last two years’ (2012 – 2013) average catch of training data as a benchmark. The catches increased on average by 41 % in the short term but decreased by 17.72 % in the long term.
 
Date 2021-08-24T06:25:16Z
2021-08-24T06:25:16Z
2021-07
 
Type Article
 
Identifier 2582-6727 (Online); 2582-6506 (Print)
http://nopr.niscair.res.in/handle/123456789/57950
 
Language en
 
Publisher NIScPR-CSIR, India
 
Source IJMS Vol.50(07) [July 2021]