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Climate change impacts and adaptation for dryland farming systems in Zimbabwe: a stakeholder-driven integrated multi-model assessment

OAR@ICRISAT

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Relation http://oar.icrisat.org/11903/
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03151-8
doi:10.1007/s10584-021-03151-8
 
Title Climate change impacts and adaptation for dryland farming systems in Zimbabwe: a stakeholder-driven integrated multi-model assessment
 
Creator Tui, S H
Descheemaeker, K
Valdivia, R O
Masikati, P
Sisito, G
Moyo, E N
Crespo, O
Ruane, A C
Rosenzweig, C
 
Subject Climate Adaptation
Crop Modelling
Climate Change
Poverty
Zimbabwe
 
Description Decision makers need accurate information to address climate variability and change and
accelerate transformation to sustainability. A stakeholder-driven, science-based multimodel
approach has been developed and used by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison
and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to generate actionable information for adaptation
planning processes. For a range of mid-century climate projections—likely to be hotter,
drier, and more variable—contrasting future socio-economic scenarios (Representative
Agricultural Pathways, RAPs) were co-developed with stakeholders to portray a sustainable
development scenario and a rapid economic growth pathway. The unique characteristic
of this application is the integration of a multi-modeling approach with
stakeholder engagement to co-develop scenarios and adaptation strategies. Distribution
of outcomes were simulated with climate, crop, livestock, and economic impact assessment
models for smallholder crop livestock farmers in a typical dryland agro-ecological
zone in Zimbabwe, characterized by low and erratic rainfall and nutrient depleted soils.
Results showed that in Nkayi District, Western Zimbabwe, climate change would
threaten most of the farms, and, in particular, those with large cattle herds due to feed
shortages. Adaptation strategies that showed the most promise included diversification
using legume production, soil fertility improvement, and investment in conducive market
environments. The switch to more legumes in the farming systems reduced the vulnerability
of the very poor as well as the more resourced farmers. Overall, the sustainable
development scenario consistently addressed institutional failures and motivated productivity-
enhancing, environmentally sound technologies and inclusive development approaches.
This yielded more favorable outcomes than investment in quick economic
wins from commercializing agriculture.
 
Publisher Springer
 
Date 2021-09
 
Type Article
PeerReviewed
 
Format application/pdf
 
Language en
 
Identifier http://oar.icrisat.org/11903/1/Tui2021_Article_ClimateChangeImpactsAndAdaptat.pdf
Tui, S H and Descheemaeker, K and Valdivia, R O and Masikati, P and Sisito, G and Moyo, E N and Crespo, O and Ruane, A C and Rosenzweig, C (2021) Climate change impacts and adaptation for dryland farming systems in Zimbabwe: a stakeholder-driven integrated multi-model assessment. Climatic Change (TSI), 168 (1-2). pp. 1-21. ISSN 0165-0009