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Influences of increasing temperature on Indian wheat: quantifying limits to predictability

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Title Influences of increasing temperature on Indian wheat: quantifying limits to predictability
 
Creator Köhler, Ann-Kristin
Challinor, Andrew J.
Hawkins E
Asseng, Senthold
 
Subject agriculture
climate
yields
models
 
Description As climate changes, temperatures will play an increasing role in determining crop yield. Both climate model error and lack of constrained physiological thresholds limit the predictability of yield. We used a perturbed-parameter climate model ensemble with two methods of bias-correction as input to a regional-scale wheat simulation model over India to examine future yields. This model configuration accounted for uncertainty in climate, planting date, optimization, temperature-induced changes in development rate and reproduction. It also accounts for lethal temperatures, which have been somewhat neglected to date. Using uncertainty decomposition, we found that fractional uncertainty due to temperature-driven processes in the crop model was on average larger than climate model uncertainty (0.56 versus 0.44), and that the crop model uncertainty is dominated by crop development. Simulations with the raw compared to the bias-corrected climate data did not agree on the impact on future wheat yield, nor its geographical distribution. However the method of bias-correction was not an important source of uncertainty. We conclude that bias-correction of climate model data and improved constraints on especially crop development are critical for robust impact predictions.
 
Date 2013-09-01
2013-08-14T11:02:48Z
2013-08-14T11:02:48Z
 
Type Journal Article
 
Identifier Koehler AK, Challinor AJ, Hawkins E, Asseng S. 2013. Influences of increasing temperature on Indian wheat: quantifying limits to predictability. Environmental Research Letters 8(3).
1748-9326
https://hdl.handle.net/10568/33462
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034016
 
Language en
 
Rights CC-BY-3.0
Open Access
 
Publisher IOP Publishing
 
Source Environmental Research Letters