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Spatio and temporal variations in population abundance and distribution of peach fruit fly, Bactrocera zonata (Saunders) during future climate change scenarios based on temperature driven phenology model

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Title Spatio and temporal variations in population abundance and distribution of peach fruit fly, Bactrocera zonata (Saunders) during future climate change scenarios based on temperature driven phenology model
Not Available
 
Creator Jaipal S. Choudhary
Santosh S. Mali
Naiyar Naaz
Sandip Malik
Bikash Das
A. K. Singh
M.S. Rao
B. P. Bhatt
 
Subject Risk assessment
Pest forecasting model
Phenology model
 
Description Not Available
The peach fruit fly, Bactrocera zonata (Saunders) (Diptera: Tephritidae) is a poylphagous and
serious insect pest of horticultural crops. The purpose of study was to understand the spatial and
temporal variations in population abundance and distribution of B. zonata in response to climate
change-based variations in temperature across the India. To examine the likely possibilities of
changes in abundance and distribution of B. zonata, temperature driven process based phenology
models were linked with climatic data of multiple General Circulation Model (eight models) and
climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) using the Insect Life Cycle Modeling (ILCYM)
software. The risk indices (establishment, generation, and activity index) were mapped and
quantified the changes in respect to locations, scenarios, models and times (2050 & 2070). The
risk indices results revealed that, 1.73 (0.8–1.0 establishment risk), 14.15 (>16 high abundance)
and 59.69% (>8.0 generation per year) area is projected to be highly suitable for B. zonata
regarding establishment, abundance and generation indices, respectively in India under current
climatic conditions. In spite of decreased permanent establishment (Establishment Risk Index >
0.6) in future climatic conditions, it is predicted that abundance and generation indices would
increase in all the locations of the country. The variation in the results due to use of multiple
GCM-scenario combinations suggested that choice of GCM and scenario combinations have
impact on future prediction of the species. Overall, results indicate that B. zonata would be significant
threat to horticultural crops in India. Therefore, present findings are of immensly useful
to provide important information to design integrated pest management strategies and phytosanitary
measurements for local, regional and national level to restrain the insect pest activity
across different layers.
Not Available
 
Date 2021-08-03T07:01:42Z
2021-08-03T07:01:42Z
2021-02-03
 
Type Research Paper
 
Identifier Jaipal S. Choudhary*, Santosh S. Mali, Naiyar Naaz, Sandip Malik, B. Das, A.K. Singh, M. S. Rao and B.P. Bhatt, (2021). Spatio and temporal variations in population abundance and distribution of peach fruit fly, Bactrocera zonata (Saunders) during future climate change scenarios based on temperature driven phenology model. Climate Risk Management, 32: 100277, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2021.100277
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http://krishi.icar.gov.in/jspui/handle/123456789/52500
 
Language English
 
Relation Not Available;
 
Publisher Elsevier B.V.