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Analyses of rainfall using probability distribution and Markov chain models for crop planning in Daspalla region in Odisha, India

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Title Analyses of rainfall using probability distribution and Markov chain models for crop planning in Daspalla region in Odisha, India
Not Available
 
Creator Mandal, K.G., Padhi, J., Kumar, A., Ghosh, S., Panda, D.K., Mohanty, R.K. and Raychaudhuri, M.
 
Subject Probability Distribution Function, Markov Chain Model, Effective Rainfall, Gumbel Distribution, Rainfed Agriculture
 
Description Not Available
Rainfed agriculture plays and will continue to
play a dominant role in providing food and livelihoods
for an increasing world population. Rainfall analyses are
helpful for proper crop planning under changing environment
in any region. Therefore, in this paper, an
attempt has been made to analyse 16 years of rainfall
(1995–2010) at the Daspalla region in Odisha, eastern
India for prediction using six probability distribution
functions, forecasting the probable date of onset and
withdrawal of monsoon, occurrence of dry spells by
using Markov chain model and finally crop planning
for the region. For prediction of monsoon and postmonsoon
rainfall, log Pearson type III and Gumbel
distribution were the best-fit probability distribution
functions. The earliest and most delayed week of the
onset of rainy season was the 20th standard meteorological
week (SMW) (14th–20th May) and 25th SMW
(18th–24th June), respectively. Similarly, the earliest and
most delayed week of withdrawal of rainfall was the
39th SMW (24th–30th September) and 47th SMW
(19th–25th November), respectively. The longest and
shortest length of rainy season was 26 and 17 weeks,
respectively. The chances of occurrence of dry spells are
high from the 1st–22nd SMW and again the 42nd SMW
to the end of the year. The probability of weeks (23rd–
40th SMW) remaining wet varies between 62 and
100 % for the region. Results obtained through this
analysis would be utilised for agricultural planning and
mitigation of dry spells at the Daspalla region in
Odisha, India.
Not Available
 
Date 2018-11-26T04:10:52Z
2018-11-26T04:10:52Z
2014-08-20
 
Type Research Paper
 
Identifier Mandal, K.G., Padhi, J., Kumar, A., Ghosh, S., Panda, D.K., Mohanty, R.K. and Raychaudhuri, M. 2015. Analyses of rainfall using probability distribution and Markov chain models for crop planning in Daspalla region in Odisha, India. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 121(3-4): 517-528
1434-4483
http://krishi.icar.gov.in/jspui/handle/123456789/13234
 
Language English
 
Relation Not Available;
 
Publisher springer