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Statistical analysis of Indian rainfall and rice productivity anomalies over the last decades

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Title Statistical analysis of Indian rainfall and rice productivity anomalies over the last decades
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Creator N. Subash and B. Gangwar
 
Subject El Ni˜no; India; monsoon; normalized kharif rice productivity anomaly; normalized rainfall anomaly; sea surface temperature; triennium
 
Description Not Available
Monsoon fluctuations have a reflective influence on rice productivity, which is the main foodgrain in India.
The impact of El Ni˜no on spatial variability of summer monsoon rainfall and thereby kharif rice productivity was analysed
for the period 1974–2009. It was clear from the analysis that the delayed onset of monsoon along with El Ni˜no has varied
influences on rice productivity over different rice growing states as well as over India. Out of eight El Ni˜no years, 6 years
received deficit rainfall during monsoon season. But, the quantity of deficit varies from −20.3% in 2002 to −5.5% in
1991. The monthly distribution of monsoon rainfall shows higher frequency of deficit occurred during July and September.
Interestingly, all El Ni˜no years, except in 1997, September received deficit in rainfall which indicate the early withdrawal
of monsoon. During 8 moderate and strong El Ni˜no years, 5 years the kharif rice productivity falls below the technological
trend ranging by between −4.3% in 1986 and −13.8% in 2002 over India. There exists a wide spatial variability of
normalized kharif rice productivity anomaly during moderate El Ni˜no event, with a maximum of −21.9% over Gujarat
followed by −15.9% at Maharashtra. However, during the strong El Ni˜no event, there is a maximum of −14.2% at Bihar
to −6.6% over Maharashtra. The correlation between normalized monthly rainfall anomaly and rice productivity anomaly
during the El Ni˜no years indicated that July rainfall contributed 71% of the variations in rice productivity. Analysis of El
Ni˜no impact on spatial rice productivity may be useful for formulating farm-level site specific management planning and
policy decisions.
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Date 2018-12-03T04:46:39Z
2018-12-03T04:46:39Z
2014-01-01
 
Type Research Paper
 
Identifier Not Available
http://krishi.icar.gov.in/jspui/handle/123456789/15119
 
Language English
 
Relation Not Available;
 
Publisher Royal Meteorological Society (Wiley-Blackwell)