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Stochastic model for drought forecasting for Bundelkhand region in Central India

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Title Stochastic model for drought forecasting for Bundelkhand region in Central India
Not Available
 
Creator N M ALAM,
P K MISHRA,
C JANA
PARTHA PRATIM ADHIKARY
 
Subject Auto regressive integrated moving average, Drought, Linear stochastic model, Seasonal Auto regressive integrated moving average, Standardized Precipitation Index
 
Description Not Available
In the present study, standardized precipitation index (SPI) series at 3-month, 6-month, 9-month, 12-month and 24-
month time scale has been used to assess the vulnerability of meteorological drought in the Bundelkhand region of Central
India. SPI values revealed that the droughts in the region over the study period vary from moderately high to extremely
high. Suitable linear stochastic model, viz. seasonal and non seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)
developed to predict drought at different time scale. The best model was selected based on minimum Akaike Information
Criterion (AIC) and Schwarz Bayesian Criterion (SBC). Statistical analysis revealed that non-seasonal ARIMA model
was appropriate for 3-month SPI series while seasonal ARIMA models have been found promising for SPI series at 6-, 9,-
12 and 24-month time scale. Parameter estimation step indicates that the estimated model parameters are significantly
different from zero. The predicted data using the best ARIMA model were compared to the observed data for model
validation purpose in which the predicted data show reasonably good agreement with the actual data. Hence the models
were applied to forecast drought in the Bundelhand region up to 3 months advanced with good accuracy.
Not Available
 
Date 2020-03-17T09:03:39Z
2020-03-17T09:03:39Z
2014-02-01
 
Type Research Paper
 
Identifier Not Available
Not Available
http://krishi.icar.gov.in/jspui/handle/123456789/33905
 
Language English
 
Relation Not Available;
 
Publisher Not Available