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Impact of mass vaccination on the spatiotemporal dynamics of FMD outbreaks in India, 2008–2016

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Title Impact of mass vaccination on the spatiotemporal dynamics of FMD outbreaks in India, 2008–2016
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Creator UmangaGunasekera
JitendraKumarBiswal
Gustavo Machado
Rajeev Ranjan
Saravanan Subramaniam
Manoranjan Rout
Jajati Keshari Mohapatra
Bramhadev Pattnaik
Rabindra Prasad Singh
Jonathan Arzt
Andres Perez
Kimberly Vander Waal
 
Subject Bayesianregression,endemicsetting,massvaccination,riskanalysis,transboundary
 
Description Not Available
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is endemic in India, where circulation of serotypes O, A and Asia1 is frequent. Here, we provide an epidemiological assessment of the ongoing mass vaccination programs in regard to post-vaccination monitoring and outbreak occurrence. The objective of this study was assessing the contribution of mass vaccination campaigns in reducing the risk of FMD in India from 2008 to 2016 by evaluating sero-monitoring data and modelling the spatiotemporal dynamics of reported outbreaks. Through analyzing antibody titre data from >1 million animals sampled as part of pre- and post-vaccination monitoring, we show that the percent of animals with inferred immunological protection (based on ELISA) was highly variable across states but generally increased through time. In addition, the number of outbreaks in a state was negatively correlated with the percent of animals with inferred protection. We then analyzed the distribution of reported FMD outbreaks across states using a Bayesian space–time model. This approach provides better acuity to disentangle the effect of mass vaccination programs on outbreak occurrence, while accounting for other factors that contribute to spatiotemporal variability in outbreak counts, notably
proximity to international borders and inherent spatiotemporal correlations in incidence. This model demonstrated a ∼50% reduction in the risk of outbreaks in states that were part of the vaccination program. In addition, after controlling for spatial autocorrelation in the data, states that had international borders experienced heightened risk of FMD outbreaks. These findings help inform risk-based control strategies for India as the country progresses towards reducing reported clinical disease.
Not Available
 
Date 2022-12-16T16:15:37Z
2022-12-16T16:15:37Z
2022-09-25
 
Type Research Paper
 
Identifier Not Available
1865-1674
http://krishi.icar.gov.in/jspui/handle/123456789/75217
 
Language English
 
Relation Not Available;
 
Publisher Wiley-VCH GmbH