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Outbreak prediction of Anthrax in Karnataka using Poisson, Negative-binomial and Zero-truncated models

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Title Outbreak prediction of Anthrax in Karnataka using Poisson, Negative-binomial and Zero-truncated models
Not Available
 
Creator Suma AP
Suresh KP
Gajendragad MR
Kavya BA
 
Subject Anthrax
Remote sensing
Zero-truncated model
 
Description Not Available
Anthrax is a well-known zoonotic disease caused by Bacillus anthracis, a gram positive, spore forming aerobic
bacteria. In livestock Anthrax is usually peracute and highly fatal whereas in humans it is a subacute disease and
fatal if not treated immediately. Anthrax is prevalent world-wide and is one of the top ten livestock diseases in India and hence forecasting the
outbreak of this disease by modelling is very helpful in saving the livestock and thereby averting economic loss to the livestock farmer in
particular and country in general. In this paper, the data on the outbreak reports of Anthrax in livestock in Karnataka from 2000 to 2014 have
been analysed. To develop the model, in the risk factor domain, amount of rainfall, temperature, soil pH, soil type and soil nutrients were
collected retrospectively. Further, remote sensed variables like Normalized Difference Vegetative Index (NDVI) and Land surface
temperature (LST) were collected using Moderate Resolution Imaging spectro-radiometer (MODIS) tools. Prediction models of anthrax
outbreaks in Karnataka using count models viz. Poisson, Negative Binomial and Zero truncated models were developed. Initially, prediction
models were tested for goodness-of-fit using Chi-square test. en the models were evaluated using Akaike information criterion (AIC), AIC
for correction (AICC) and Baysian Information Criterion (BIC). Zero-Truncated Poisson model provided the best fit for the data on taluk level
outbreak of Anthrax. An attempt is made to explain how various factors influence outbreak of Anthrax. A risk map forecasting the outbreaks
of Anthrax at taluk level was also generated.
Not Available
 
Date 2018-11-07T04:07:05Z
2018-11-07T04:07:05Z
2017-03-01
 
Type Research Paper
 
Identifier Not Available
2277 - 8179
http://krishi.icar.gov.in/jspui/handle/123456789/9644
 
Language English
 
Relation Not Available;
 
Publisher INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH