Outbreak prediction of Anthrax in Karnataka using Poisson, Negative-binomial and Zero-truncated models
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Title |
Outbreak prediction of Anthrax in Karnataka using Poisson, Negative-binomial and Zero-truncated models
Not Available |
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Creator |
Suma AP
Suresh KP Gajendragad MR Kavya BA |
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Subject |
Anthrax
Remote sensing Zero-truncated model |
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Description |
Not Available
Anthrax is a well-known zoonotic disease caused by Bacillus anthracis, a gram positive, spore forming aerobic bacteria. In livestock Anthrax is usually peracute and highly fatal whereas in humans it is a subacute disease and fatal if not treated immediately. Anthrax is prevalent world-wide and is one of the top ten livestock diseases in India and hence forecasting the outbreak of this disease by modelling is very helpful in saving the livestock and thereby averting economic loss to the livestock farmer in particular and country in general. In this paper, the data on the outbreak reports of Anthrax in livestock in Karnataka from 2000 to 2014 have been analysed. To develop the model, in the risk factor domain, amount of rainfall, temperature, soil pH, soil type and soil nutrients were collected retrospectively. Further, remote sensed variables like Normalized Difference Vegetative Index (NDVI) and Land surface temperature (LST) were collected using Moderate Resolution Imaging spectro-radiometer (MODIS) tools. Prediction models of anthrax outbreaks in Karnataka using count models viz. Poisson, Negative Binomial and Zero truncated models were developed. Initially, prediction models were tested for goodness-of-fit using Chi-square test. en the models were evaluated using Akaike information criterion (AIC), AIC for correction (AICC) and Baysian Information Criterion (BIC). Zero-Truncated Poisson model provided the best fit for the data on taluk level outbreak of Anthrax. An attempt is made to explain how various factors influence outbreak of Anthrax. A risk map forecasting the outbreaks of Anthrax at taluk level was also generated. Not Available |
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Date |
2018-11-07T04:07:05Z
2018-11-07T04:07:05Z 2017-03-01 |
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Type |
Research Paper
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Identifier |
Not Available
2277 - 8179 http://krishi.icar.gov.in/jspui/handle/123456789/9644 |
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Language |
English
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Relation |
Not Available;
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Publisher |
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH
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