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Forecasting of wheat (Triticum aestivum) yield using ordinal logistic regression

Indian Agricultural Research Journals

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Title Forecasting of wheat (Triticum aestivum) yield using ordinal logistic regression
 
Creator KUMARI, VANDITA
KUMAR, AMRENDER
 
Subject Ordinal logistic regression, Wheat yield forecast
 
Description In this study, uses of ordinal logistic model based on weather data has been attempted for forecasting wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yield in Kanpur district of Uttar Pradesh. Weekly weather data (1971-72 to 2009-10) on maximum temperature, minimum temperature, morning relative humidity, evening relative humidity and rainfall for 16 weeks of the crop cultivation along with the yield data of wheat crop have been considered in the study. Crop years were divided into two and three groups based on the detrended yield. Yield forecast models have been developed using probabilities obtained through ordinal logistic regression along with year as regressors for different weeks. Data from 1971-72 to 2006-07 have been utilized for model fitting and subsequent three years (2007-08 to 2009-10) were used for the validation of the model. Evaluation of the performance of the models developed at different weeks has been done by Adj R2, PRESS (Predicted error sums of squares) and number of misclassifications. Evaluation of the forecasts were done by RMSE (Root mean square error) and MAPE (Mean absolute percentage error) of forecast.
 
Publisher The Indian Journal of Agricultural Sciences
 
Contributor —
 
Date 2014-06-13
 
Type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Peer-reviewed Article
 
Format application/pdf
 
Identifier http://epubs.icar.org.in/ejournal/index.php/IJAgS/article/view/41424
 
Source The Indian Journal of Agricultural Sciences; Vol 84, No 6 (2014)
0019-5022
 
Language eng
 
Relation http://epubs.icar.org.in/ejournal/index.php/IJAgS/article/view/41424/18465
 
Rights Copyright (c) 2014 The Indian Journal of Agricultural Sciences