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Stochastic model for drought forecasting for Bundelkhand region in Central India

Indian Agricultural Research Journals

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Title Stochastic model for drought forecasting for Bundelkhand region in Central India
 
Creator ALAM, N M
MISHRA, P K
JANA, C
ADHIKARY, PARTHA PRATIM
 
Subject Auto regressive integrated moving average, Drought, Linear stochastic model, Seasonal auto regressive integrated moving average, Standardized Precipitation Index
 
Description In the present study, standardized precipitation index (SPI) series at 3-month, 6-month, 9-month, 12-month and 24month time scale has been used to assess the vulnerability of meteorological drought in the Bundelkhand region of Central India. SPI values revealed that the droughts in the region over the study period vary from moderately high to extremely high. Suitable linear stochastic model, viz. seasonal and non-seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) developed to predict drought at different time scale. The best model was selected based on minimum Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Schwarz Bayesian Criterion (SBC). Statistical analysis revealed that non-seasonal ARIMA model was appropriate for 3-month SPI series while seasonal ARIMA models have been found promising for SPI series at 6-, 9,12 and 24-month time scale. Parameter estimation step indicates that the estimated model parameters are significantly different from zero. The predicted data using the best ARIMA model were compared to the observed data for model validation purpose in which the predicted data show reasonably good agreement with the actual data. Hence the models were applied to forecast drought in the Bundelhand region up to 3 months advanced with good accuracy.
 
Publisher The Indian Journal of Agricultural Sciences
 
Contributor —
 
Date 2014-02-18
 
Type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Peer-reviewed Article
 
Format application/pdf
 
Identifier http://epubs.icar.org.in/ejournal/index.php/IJAgS/article/view/38045
 
Source The Indian Journal of Agricultural Sciences; Vol 84, No 2 (2014)
0019-5022
 
Language eng
 
Relation http://epubs.icar.org.in/ejournal/index.php/IJAgS/article/view/38045/17079
 
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