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Climate change impact on cultivated and wild cacao in Peru and the search of climate change-tolerant genotypes

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Title Climate change impact on cultivated and wild cacao in Peru and the search of climate change-tolerant genotypes
 
Creator Ceccarelli, Viviana
Fremout, Tobias
Zavaleta, Diego
Lastra, Sphyros
Correa, Sixto Imán
Arévalo-Gardini, Enrique
Rodríguez, Carlos Armando
Cruz Hilacondo, Wilbert
Thomas, Evert
 
Subject theobroma cacao
climate change
impact assessment
tolerance
genotype environment interaction
cambio climático
evaluación del impacto
tolerancia
 
Description Aim: Cacao (Theobroma cacao L.) is expected to be vulnerable to climate change.
The objectives of this study were to (a) assess the future impact of climate change on cacao in Peru and (b) identify areas where climate change-tolerant genotypes are potentially present.
Location: Peru
Methods: Drawing on 19,700 and 1,200 presence points of cultivated and wild cacao, respectively, we modelled their suitability distributions using multiple en semble models constructed based on both random and target group selection of pseudo-absence points and different resolutions of spatial filtering. To estimate the uncertainty of future predictions, we generated future projections for all the ensem ble models. We investigated the potential emergence of novel climates, determined expected changes in ecogeographical zones (zones representative for particular sets of growth conditions) and carried out an outlier analysis based on the environmental variables most relevant for climate change adaptation to identify areas where climate change-tolerant genotypes are potentially present.
Results: We found that the best modelling approaches differed between cultivated and wild cacao and that the resolution of spatial filtering had a strong impact on future suitability predictions, calling for careful evaluation of the effect of model selection on modelling results. Overall, our models foresee a contraction of suitable area for cultivated cacao while predicting a more positive future for wild cacao in Peru. Ecogeographical zones are expected to change in 8%–16% of the distribution of cultivated and wild cacao. We identified several areas where climate change-tolerant genotypes may be present in Peru.
Main conclusions: Our results indicate that tolerant genotypes will be required to facilitate the adaptation of cacao cultivation under climate change. The identified cacao populations will be target of collection missions.
 
Date 2021-08
2021-05-27T07:38:56Z
2021-05-27T07:38:56Z
 
Type Journal Article
 
Identifier Ceccarelli, V.; Fremout, T.; Zavaleta, D.; Lastra, S.; Correa, S.I.; Arévalo-Gardini, E.; Rodriguez, C.A.; Cruz Hilacondo, W.; Thomas, E. (2021) Climate change impact on cultivated and wild cacao in Peru and the search of climate change-tolerant genotypes. Diversity and Distributions, Online first paper (21 May 2021). 15 p. ISSN: 1366-9516
1366-9516
https://hdl.handle.net/10568/113798
https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13294
 
Language en
 
Rights CC-BY-4.0
Open Access
 
Format p. 1462-1476
application/pdf
 
Publisher Wiley
 
Source Diversity and Distributions