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Drivers of Subseasonal Forecast Errors of the East African Short Rains

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Title Drivers of Subseasonal Forecast Errors of the East African Short Rains
 
Creator Kolstad, Erik Wilhelm
Macleod, David
Demissie, Teferi Dejene
 
Subject forecasting
rain
agriculture
food security
climate change
 
Description The ‘short rains’ in East Africa from October to December have significant year-to-year variability. Their abundance or deficiency is often associated with floods or droughts for which early warning is crucial, though even in normal seasons skillful forecasts facilitate planning and preparedness. Here we study the relationship between initial-state sea surface temperatures and subseasonal rainfall forecast errors in the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model in the region. We demonstrate that the initial mode of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a partial control on the rainfall error in weeks 3–4. This relationship is also clear on the seasonal scale, exemplified by too-wet forecasts during the 2015 season when the IOD was positive, and too-dry forecasts in 2010 when it was negative. Our results provide an entry point for model improvement, and we show that a priori forecast corrections based on the initial IOD index are feasible.
 
Date 2021-07-28
2021-09-07T13:14:42Z
2021-09-07T13:14:42Z
 
Type Journal Article
 
Identifier Kolstad EW, MacLeod D, Demissie TD. 2021. Drivers of Subseasonal Forecast Errors of the East African Short Rains. Geophysical Research Letters 48(14):e2021GL093292..
0094-8276
https://hdl.handle.net/10568/114899
https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL093292
 
Language en
 
Rights CC-BY-4.0
Open Access
 
Format e2021GL093292
 
Publisher Amer Geophysical Union
 
Source Geophysical Research Letters