Record Details

Developing timely and actionable drought forecasts for the Limpopo River Basin

CGSpace

View Archive Info
 
 
Field Value
 
Title Developing timely and actionable drought forecasts for the Limpopo River Basin
 
Creator Montes, Carlo
 
Subject drought
forecasting
climate change adaptation
machine learning
 
Description Southern Africa is highly drought-prone, and its agricultural and hydrological systems are vulnerable. Climate forecasts provide tools for decision-making and adaptation to climate extreme events. This report presents the preliminary results regarding the development of seasonal drought forecasts for the Limpopo River basin. Using multiple climate-relevant datasets, a diagnosis of the climate of the Limpopo basin was carried out, and the relevance of using the SPEI drought index for characterizing droughts was also assessed. The results showed strong climatic seasonality, in addition to the strong relationship between the seasonal drought conditions captured by SPEI. Outputs from four climate models, gridded rainfall observations, and a machine-learning method were used to generate a real-time experimental probabilistic forecast of rainfall in the Limpopo basin. Finally, the next steps are presented to meet the objectives of the Initiative, strengthening the capacities of the Limpopo Watercourse Commission.
 
Date 2022-12-31
2023-01-24T16:05:15Z
2023-01-24T16:05:15Z
 
Type Report
 
Identifier Montes, C. (2022). Developing timely and actionable drought forecast s for the Limpopo River Basin. https://hdl.handle.net/10883/22457
https://hdl.handle.net/10568/128080
https://hdl.handle.net/10883/22457
 
Language en
 
Rights CC-BY-4.0
Open Access
 
Format 21 p.
application/pdf
 
Publisher International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center
LIMCOM