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Worldwide dynamic biogeography of zoonotic and anthroponotic dengue

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Title Worldwide dynamic biogeography of zoonotic and anthroponotic dengue
 
Creator Aliaga-Samanez, A.
Cobos-Mayo, M.
Real, R.
Segura, M.
Romero, D.
Fa, J.E.
Olivero, J.
 
Subject biogeography
zoonoses
spatial distribution
primates
 
Description Dengue is a viral disease transmitted by mosquitoes. The rapid spread of dengue could lead to a global pandemic, and so the geographical extent of this spread needs to be assessed and predicted. There are also reasons to suggest that transmission of dengue from non-human primates in tropical forest cycles is being underestimated. We investigate the fine-scale geographic changes in transmission risk since the late 20th century, and take into account for the first time the potential role that primate biogeography and sylvatic vectors play in increasing the disease transmission risk. We apply a biogeographic framework to the most recent global dataset of dengue cases. Temporally stratified models describing favorable areas for vector presence and for disease transmission are combined. Our models were validated for predictive capacity, and point to a significant broadening of vector presence in tropical and non-tropical areas globally. We show that dengue transmission is likely to spread to affected areas in China, Papua New Guinea, Australia, USA, Colombia, Venezuela, Madagascar, as well as to cities in Europe and Japan. These models also suggest that dengue transmission is likely to spread to regions where there are presently no or very few reports of occurrence. According to our results, sylvatic dengue cycles account for a small percentage of the global extent of the human case record, but could be increasing in relevance in Asia, Africa, and South America. The spatial distribution of factors favoring transmission risk in different regions of the world allows for distinct management strategies to be prepared.
 
Date 2021-06-07
2021-09-29T04:40:04Z
2021-09-29T04:40:04Z
 
Type Journal Article
 
Identifier Aliaga-Samanez, A., Cobos-Mayo, M., Real, R., Segura, M., Romero, D., Fa, J.E. and Olivero, J., 2021. Worldwide dynamic biogeography of zoonotic and anthroponotic dengue. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 15(6), e0009496. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009496
1935-2727
https://hdl.handle.net/10568/115223
https://www.cifor.org/library/8161
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009496
 
Language en
 
Rights CC-BY-4.0
Open Access
 
Format e0009496
 
Publisher Public Library of Science (PLoS)
 
Source PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases