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Incorporating seasonality into an agroeconomic model of Ethiopia

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Title Incorporating seasonality into an agroeconomic model of Ethiopia
 
Creator Lala, Jonathan
Regassa, Mekdim D.
Zhang, Ying
You, Liangzhi
Block, Paul
 
Subject agriculture
economy
production
seasonality
climate
models
crops
yields
planting
poverty
income
foods
 
Description Ethiopia’s agriculture-based economy generates highly seasonal outputs, with most production occurring during the long-rains Meher season and a lesser amount during the short-rains Belg season. Despite numerous studies detailing the economic impacts of Meher precipitation, there is relatively little consideration of other seasonal or subseasonal climate impacts in Ethiopia, with most economic models only considering aggregated annual-scale production to simulate the Ethiopian economy. This paper serves to address both seasonal and subseasonal effects of climate using a partial equilibrium agroeconomic model of Ethiopia. First, an annual-scale model is disaggregated into a seasonal time step, corresponding to the two major cropping seasons in Ethiopia. Second, the effect of yield gains from a subseasonal forecast–based planting strategy is considered in the updated model. We found that crop yields and corresponding economic indicators varied widely by season and location, and that subseasonal forecast–based management strategies can, on average, increase gross domestic product (GDP), per capita calorie consumption, and lead toward reduced poverty, warranting the inclusion of seasonal and subseasonal processes in economic models and agricultural planning.
 
Date 2023-02-15
2023-01-30T19:38:33Z
2023-01-30T19:38:33Z
 
Type Journal Article
 
Identifier Lala, Jonathan; Regassa, Mekdim D.; Zhang, Ying; You, Liangzhi; and Block, Paul. 2023. Incorporat-ing seasonality into an agroeconomic model of Ethiopia. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 149(2). https://doi.org/10.1061/JWRMD5.WRENG-5785
1943-5452
https://hdl.handle.net/10568/128334
https://doi.org/10.1061/JWRMD5.WRENG-5785
 
Language en
 
Rights Copyrighted; all rights reserved
Limited Access
 
Source Journal of Water Resources Planning and Managment