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Protein-rich legume and pseudo-cereal crop suitability under present and future European climates

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Title Protein-rich legume and pseudo-cereal crop suitability under present and future European climates
 
Creator Manners, Rhys
Varela Ortega, C.
Etten, Jacob van
 
Subject proteins
crops
legumes
climate change
abiotic stress
 
Description Replacing animal proteins with plant proteins in diets has been demonstrated to have both health and environmental advantages, driving a debate about the potential of protein-rich crops as dietary replacements for animal products. However, there is a lack of knowledge on how climate change could influence the potential for producing protein-rich crops. This study addresses this knowledge gap for the European Union. We analysed 13 protein-rich crops, using the crop suitability model EcoCrop and climate projections for the 2050s, based on 30 Global Circulation Models, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5. The results suggest that current protein-rich crop distributions reflect climatic suitability. We demonstrate the heterogeneous impacts of climate change on crop suitability. In general, conditions in northern Europe were modelled to become more favourable for protein-rich crops, while in southern Europe modelled future climates limit the production of traditional protein-rich crops commonly grown there, including chickpea and lentil. Model results show an expanded area of high suitability for quinoa. Our results confirm the need for concerted breeding and research planning strategies to improve the tolerance of faba bean, lentil, and chickpea to the abiotic stresses that are predicted to become more common with climate change. At the same time, production in northern Europe can benefit from experimentation with protein-rich crops predicted to become more suitable there. Production planning and agricultural policy should consider these likely impacts, to encourage shifts that follow the emerging geographic patterns of crop suitability, and to support the resilience of protein-rich crop production in regions that may be negatively impacted by climate change.
 
Date 2020-02
2019-12-19T11:59:51Z
2019-12-19T11:59:51Z
 
Type Journal Article
 
Identifier Manners, R., Varela-Ortega, C. & van Etten, J. (2020). Protein-rich legume and pseudo-cereal crop suitability under present and future European climates. European Journal of Agronomy, 113, 1-12.
1161-0301
https://hdl.handle.net/10568/106241
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2019.125974
 
Language en
 
Rights CC-BY-4.0
Open Access
 
Format 1-12
application/pdf
 
Publisher Elsevier BV
 
Source European Journal of Agronomy