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Fitting Time-series Models to Kisumu Rainfall Data for the Period 1961-2014

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Title Fitting Time-series Models to Kisumu Rainfall Data for the Period 1961-2014
 
Creator Mwakudisa, Mawora Thomas
Otumba, Edgar Ouko
Otieno, Joyce Akinyi
 
Subject rainfall patterns
forecasting
smallholders
food security
climate change
agriculture
 
Description Many small-scale farmers require adequate forecasts to help them plan for the rainfall. The National Meteorological Service provides forecasts seasonally, monthly and weekly. The forecasts are qualitative in nature hence inform, but cannot be directly used with decision support models. It is therefore important to consider forecast methods that
researchers can use to generate quantitative data that can be applied in the models. In particular, an increasing need for forecasting daily rainfall data. In this study, the ARIMA and VAR models have been used to forecast five time period data for daily, monthly and seasonal rainfall data. The objective was to find the model parameters that best fit the three time periods. Fifty-year data from Kenya Meteorological Station, Kisumu, was used for the analysis. For each time period, five events were used as the test dataset. The ARIMA model was found to be best for forecasting daily rainfall in comparison to the VAR model, while SARIMA was best for monthly and seasonal data. One difference was done for the seasonal rainfall total, but not for monthly and monthly rainfall data. The VAR models included the available daily minimum and maximum temperatures. However, forecasted daily rainfall deviated from the test data, while monthly and seasonal data deviated even more.
 
Date 2020
2020-10-22T17:15:48Z
2020-10-22T17:15:48Z
 
Type Journal Article
 
Identifier Mwakudisa MT, Otumba EO, Otieno JA. 2020. Fitting Time-series Models to Kisumu Rainfall Data for the Period 1961-2014. Mathematical Modelling and Applications 5(1):39-46.
2575-1786
https://hdl.handle.net/10568/109943
https://doi.org/10.11648/j.mma.20200501.14
PII-EA_CSVPartnerships
 
Language en
 
Rights CC-BY-4.0
Open Access
 
Format p. 39-46
 
Publisher Science Publishing Group
 
Source Mathematical Modelling and Applications