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Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks

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Title Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks
 
Creator Nelson, Gerald C.
Valin, Hugo
Sands, Ronald D.
Havlík, Petr
Ahammad, H.
Deryng, Delphine
Elliott J
Fujimori, Shinichiro
Hasegawa, Tomoko
Heyhoe, Edwina
Kyle, Page
Lampe M. von
Lotze-Campen, Hermann
Mason-D'Croz, Daniel
Meijl, Hans van
Mensbrugghe, Dominique van der
Müller, Christoph
Popp, Alexander
Robertson, Richard D.
Robinson, Sherman
Schmid, Erwin
Schmitz, Christoph
Tabeau, Andrzej
Willenbockel, Dirk
 
Subject climate
agriculture
economic analysis
plant models
environmental modelling
 
Description Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2. The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.
 
Date 2014-03-04
2014-12-16T06:37:34Z
2014-12-16T06:37:34Z
 
Type Journal Article
 
Identifier Nelson GC, Valin H, Sands RD, Havlík P, Ahammad H, Deryng D, Elliott J, Fujimori S, Hasegawa T, Heyhoe E, Kyle P, Von Lampe M, Lotze-Campen H, Mason-d’Croz D, van Meijl H, van der Mensbrugghe D, Müller C, Popp A, Robertson RD, Robinson S, Schmid E, Schmitz C, Tabeau A, Willenbockel D. 2013. Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS) 111(9):3274-3279
1091-6490
https://hdl.handle.net/10568/52118
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222465110
 
Language en
 
Rights Open Access
 
Publisher Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
 
Source Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America