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Projecting future crop productivity for global economic modeling

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Title Projecting future crop productivity for global economic modeling
 
Creator Müller, Christoph
Robertson, Richard D.
 
Subject climate
climate change
agriculture
land use
crop modelling
food production
 
Description Assessments of climate change impacts on agricultural markets and land-use patterns rely on quantification of climate change impacts on the spatial patterns of land productivity. We supply a set of climate impact scenarios on agricultural land productivity derived from two climate models and two biophysical crop growth models to account for some of the uncertainty inherent in climate and impact models. Aggregation in space and time leads to information losses that can determine climate change impacts on agricultural markets and land-use patterns because often aggregation is across steep gradients from low to high impacts or from increases to decreases. The four climate change impact scenarios supplied here were designed to represent the most significant impacts (high emission scenario only, assumed ineffectiveness of carbon dioxide fertilization on agricultural yields, no adjustments in management) but are consistent with the assumption that changes in agricultural practices are covered in the economic models. Globally, production of individual crops decrease by 10–38% under these climate change scenarios, with large uncertainties in spatial patterns that are determined by both the uncertainty in climate projections and the choice of impact model. This uncertainty in climate impact on crop productivity needs to be considered by economic assessments of climate change.
 
Date 2014-01
2014-11-28T14:13:18Z
2014-11-28T14:13:18Z
 
Type Journal Article
 
Identifier Müller C, Robertson RD. 2014. Projecting future crop productivity for global economic modeling. Agricultural Economics 45(1):37–50.
1574-0862
https://hdl.handle.net/10568/51651
https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12088
 
Language en
 
Rights Open Access
 
Format image/png
 
Source Agricultural Economics