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Use of agro-climate ensembles for quantifying uncertainty and informing adaptation

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Title Use of agro-climate ensembles for quantifying uncertainty and informing adaptation
 
Creator Challinor, Andrew J.
Stafford Smith, M.
Thornton, Philip K.
 
Subject agriculture
climate
adaptation
food security
models
yields
 
Description Significant progress has been made in the use of ensemble agricultural and climate modelling, and observed data, to project future productivity and to develop adaptation options. An increasing number of agricultural models are designed specifically for use with climate ensembles, and improved methods to quantify uncertainty in both climate and agriculture have been developed. Whilst crop–climate relationships are still the most common agricultural study of this sort, on-farm management, hydrology, pests, diseases and livestock are now also examined. This paper introduces all of these areas of progress, with more detail being found in the subsequent papers in the special issue. Remaining scientific challenges are discussed, and a distinction is developed between projection- and utility-based approaches to agro-climate ensemble modelling. Recommendations are made regarding the manner in which uncertainty is analysed and reported, and the way in which models and data are used to make inferences regarding the future. A key underlying principle is the use of models as tools from which information is extracted, rather than as competing attempts to represent reality.
 
Date 2013-03-15
2014-02-19T07:59:22Z
2014-02-19T07:59:22Z
 
Type Journal Article
 
Identifier Challinor AJ, Stafford Smith M, Thornton PK. 2013. Use of agro-climate ensembles for quantifying uncertainty and informing adaptation. Agricultural and Forestry Meteorology 170: 2-7.
https://hdl.handle.net/10568/34937
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.09.007
 
Language en
 
Rights Open Access
 
Format p. 2-7
application/pdf
 
Source Agricultural and Forest Meteorology