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Hydrological response under CMIP6 climate projection in Astore River Basin, Pakistan

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Title Hydrological response under CMIP6 climate projection in Astore River Basin, Pakistan
 
Creator Ali, Zeshan
Iqbal, M.
Khan, I. U.
Masood, M. U.
Umer, M.
Lodhi, M. U. K.
Tariq, M. A. U. R.
 
Subject climate prediction
climate change
hydrological modelling
river basins
watersheds
stream flow
runoff
climate models
forecasting
precipitation
temperature
 
Description Climate change strongly influences the available water resources in a watershed due to direct linkage of atmospheric driving forces and changes in watershed hydrological processes. Understanding how these climatic changes affect watershed hydrology is essential for human society and environmental processes. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset of three GCM’s (BCC-CSM2-MR, INM-CM5-0, and MPI-ESM1-2-HR) with resolution of 100 km has been analyzed to examine the projected changes in temperature and precipitation over the Astore catchment during 2020–2070. Bias correction method was used to reduce errors. In this study, statistical significance of trends was performed by using the Man- Kendall test. Sen’s estimator determined the magnitude of the trend on both seasonal and annual scales at Rama Rattu and Astore stations. MPI-ESM1-2-HR showed better results with coefficient of determination (COD) ranging from 0.70–0.74 for precipitation and 0.90–0.92 for maximum and minimum temperature at Astore, Rama, and Rattu followed by INM-CM5-0 and BCC-CSM2-MR. University of British Columbia Watershed model was used to attain the future hydrological series and to analyze the hydrological response of Astore River Basin to climate change. Results revealed that by the end of the 2070s, average annual precipitation is projected to increase up to 26.55% under the SSP1–2.6, 6.91% under SSP2–4.5, and decrease up to 21.62% under the SSP5–8.5. Precipitation also showed considerable variability during summer and winter. The projected temperature showed an increasing trend that may cause melting of glaciers. The projected increase in temperature ranges from - 0.66°C to 0.50°C, 0.9°C to 1.5°C and 1.18°C to 2°C under the scenarios of SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5, respectively. Simulated streamflows presented a slight increase by all scenarios. Maximum streamflow was generated under SSP5–8.5 followed by SSP2–4.5 and SSP1–2.6. The snowmelt and groundwater contributions to streamflow have decreased whereas rainfall and glacier melt components have increased on the other hand. The projected streamflows (2020–2070) compared to the control period (1990–2014) showed a reduction of 3%–11%, 2%–9%, and 1%–7% by SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5, respectively. The results revealed detailed insights into the performance of three GCMs, which can serve as a blueprint for regional policymaking and be expanded upon to establish adaption measures.
 
Date 2023-08-16
2023-08-28T06:21:15Z
2023-08-28T06:21:15Z
 
Type Journal Article
 
Identifier Ali, Zeshan; Iqbal, M.; Khan, I. U.; Masood, M. U.; Umer, M.; Lodhi, M. U. K.; Tariq, M. A. U. R. 2023. Hydrological response under CMIP6 climate projection in Astore River Basin, Pakistan. Journal of Mountain Science, 20(8):2263-2281. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-022-7872-x]
1672-6316
https://hdl.handle.net/10568/131651
https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11629-022-7872-x.pdf?pdf=button
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-022-7872-x
H052158
 
Language en
 
Rights CC-BY-4.0
Open Access
 
Format 20(8):2263-2281.
 
Source Journal of Mountain Science