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Impact of climate change on the streamflow of the Arjo-Didessa Catchment under RCP scenarios

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Title Impact of climate change on the streamflow of the Arjo-Didessa Catchment under RCP scenarios
 
Creator Bekele, W. T.
Haile, Alemseged Tamiru
Rientjes, T.
 
Subject climate change
forecasting
catchment areas
stream flow
estimation
runoff
temperature
rain
evapotranspiration
hydrology
models
performance evaluation
 
Description In this study, the impact of climate change on the streamflow of the Arjo-Didessa catchment, Upper Blue Nile basin, is evaluated. We used the outputs of four climate models for two representative concentration pathway (RCP) climate scenarios, which are RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Streamflow simulation was done by using the HEC-HMS rainfall-runoff model, which was satisfactorily calibrated and validated for the study area. For the historic period (1971–2000), all climate models significantly underestimated the observed rainfall amount for the rainy season. We therefore bias-corrected the climate data before using them as input for the rainfall-runoff model. The results of the four climate models for the period 2041 to 2070 show that annual rainfall is likely to decrease by 0.36 to 21% under RCP 4.5. The projected increases in minimum and maximum temperature will lead to an increase in annual evapotranspiration by 3 to 7%, which will likely contribute to decreasing the annual flows of Arjo-Didessa by 1 to 3%. Our results show that the impact is season dependent, with an increased streamflow in the main rainy season but a decreased flow in the short rainy season and the dry seasons. The magnitudes of projected changes are more pronounced under RCP 8.5 than under RCP 4.5.
 
Date 2021-09-01
2021-03-31T10:43:14Z
2021-03-31T10:43:14Z
 
Type Journal Article
 
Identifier Bekele, W. T.; Haile, Alemseged Tamiru; Rientjes, T. 2021. Impact of climate change on the streamflow of the Arjo-Didessa Catchment under RCP scenarios. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 12(6):2325-2337. [doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2021.307]
2040-2244
https://hdl.handle.net/10568/113173
https://iwaponline.com/jwcc/article-pdf/doi/10.2166/wcc.2021.307/856934/jwc2021307.pdf
https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2021.307
H050318
 
Language en
 
Rights CC-BY-4.0
Open Access
 
Format p. 2325-2337
 
Publisher IWA Publishing
 
Source Journal of Water and Climate Change