A decentralized approach to model national and global food and land use systems
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Title |
A decentralized approach to model national and global food and land use systems
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Creator |
Mosnier, Aline
Javalera-Rincon, Valeria Jones, Sarah K. Andrew, Robbie Bai, Zhaohai Baker, Justin Basnet, Shyam Boer, Chavarro Costa, Wanderson Daloz, Anne Sophie DeClerck, Fabrice A. Díaz, Maria Douzal, Clara Howe Fan, Andrew Chiah Fetzer, Ingo Frank, Federico González Abraham; Charlotte E. Habiburrachman, A.H.F. Immanuel, Gito Harrison, Paula A. Imanirareba, Dative Jha, Chandan Jin, Xinpeng Ghosh, Ranjan Kumar Leach, Nicholas Lehtonen, Heikki Lotze-Campen, Hermann Sern Low, Wai Marcos-Martinez, Raymundo McCord, Gordon Carlos Molla, Kiflu Gedefe Monjeau, Adrian Navarro Garcia, Javier Neubauer, Rudolf Obersteiner, Michael Olguín, Marcela Orduna Cabrera, Fernando Pena, Andres Pérez Guzmán, Katya Potashnikov, Vladimir Rämö, Janne Ramos, Fernando M. Rasche, Livia Gallardo, René Reyes Schmidt-Traub, Guido Selomane, Odirilwe Singh, Vartika Smith, Alison Soterroni, Aline C. Sperling, Frank Steinhauser, Jan Stevanovic, Miodrag Strokov, Anton Thomson, Marcus Oort, Bob van Vittis, Yiorgos Wade, Chris Winarni, Nurul L. Woldeyes, Firew Bekele Wu, Grace C. Zerriff, Hisham |
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Subject |
food systems
modelling biodiversity climate change food security participatory approaches sistemas alimentarios modelización biodiversidad fable |
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Description |
The achievement of several sustainable development goals and the Paris Climate Agreement depends on rapid progress towards sustainable food and land systems in all countries. We have built a flexible, collaborative modeling framework to foster the development of national pathways by local research teams and their integration up to global scale. Local researchers independently customize national models to explore mid-century pathways of the food and land use system transformation in collaboration with stakeholders. An online platform connects the national models, iteratively balances global exports and imports, and aggregates results to the global level. Our results show that actions toward greater sustainability in countries could sum up to 1 Mha net forest gain per year, 950 Mha net gain in the land where natural processes predominate, and an increased CO2 sink of 3.7 GtCO2e yr−1 over the period 2020–2050 compared to current trends, while average food consumption per capita remains above the adequate food requirements in all countries. We show examples of how the global linkage impacts national results and how different assumptions in national pathways impact global results. This modeling setup acknowledges the broad heterogeneity of socio-ecological contexts and the fact that people who live in these different contexts should be empowered to design the future they want. But it also demonstrates to local decision-makers the interconnectedness of our food and land use system and the urgent need for more collaboration to converge local and global priorities.
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Date |
2023-04-01
2023-03-28T10:39:58Z 2023-03-28T10:39:58Z |
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Type |
Journal Article
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Identifier |
Mosnier, A.; Javalera-Rincon, V.; Jones, S.K.; Andrew, R.; Bai, Z.; Baker, J.; Basnet, S.; Boer, C.; Costa, W.; Daloz, A.S.; DeClerck, F.A.; Diaz, M.; Douzal, C.; Howe Fan, A.C.; Fetzer, I.; Frank, F.; Gonzalez-Abraham, C.E.; Habiburrachman, A.H.F.; Immanuel, G.; Harrison, P.A.; Imanirareba, D.; Jha, C.; Jin, X.; Ghosh, R.K.; Leach, N.; Lehtonen, H.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Sern Low, W.; Marcos-Martinez, R.; McCord, G.C.; Molla, K.G.; Monjeau, A.; Navarro-Garcia, J.; Neubauer, R.; Obersteiner, M.; Olguín, M.; Orduna-Cabrera, F.; Pena, A.; Pérez-Guzmán, K.; Potashnikov, V.; Rämö, J.; Ramos, F.M.; Rasche, L.; Gallardo, R.R.; Schmidt-Traub, G.; Selomane, O.; Singh, V.; Smith, A.l.; Soterroni, A.C.; Sperling, F.; Steinhauser, J.; Stevanovic, M.; Strokov, A.; Thomson, M.; van Oort, B.; Vittis, Y.; Wade, C.; Winarni, N.L.; Woldeyes, F.B.; Wu, G.C.; Zerriff, H. (2023) A decentralized approach to model national and global food and land use systems. Environmental Research Letters 18: 045001. 14 p. ISSN: 1748-9326
1748-9326 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/129781 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acc044 |
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Language |
en
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Rights |
CC-BY-4.0
Open Access |
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Format |
14 p.
application/pdf |
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Publisher |
IOP publishing
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Source |
Environmental Research Letters
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