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A decentralized approach to model national and global food and land use systems

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Title A decentralized approach to model national and global food and land use systems
 
Creator Mosnier, Aline
Javalera-Rincon, Valeria
Jones, Sarah K.
Andrew, Robbie
Bai, Zhaohai
Baker, Justin
Basnet, Shyam
Boer, Chavarro
Costa, Wanderson
Daloz, Anne Sophie
DeClerck, Fabrice A.
Díaz, Maria
Douzal, Clara
Howe Fan, Andrew Chiah
Fetzer, Ingo
Frank, Federico
González Abraham; Charlotte E.
Habiburrachman, A.H.F.
Immanuel, Gito
Harrison, Paula A.
Imanirareba, Dative
Jha, Chandan
Jin, Xinpeng
Ghosh, Ranjan Kumar
Leach, Nicholas
Lehtonen, Heikki
Lotze-Campen, Hermann
Sern Low, Wai
Marcos-Martinez, Raymundo
McCord, Gordon Carlos
Molla, Kiflu Gedefe
Monjeau, Adrian
Navarro Garcia, Javier
Neubauer, Rudolf
Obersteiner, Michael
Olguín, Marcela
Orduna Cabrera, Fernando
Pena, Andres
Pérez Guzmán, Katya
Potashnikov, Vladimir
Rämö, Janne
Ramos, Fernando M.
Rasche, Livia
Gallardo, René Reyes
Schmidt-Traub, Guido
Selomane, Odirilwe
Singh, Vartika
Smith, Alison
Soterroni, Aline C.
Sperling, Frank
Steinhauser, Jan
Stevanovic, Miodrag
Strokov, Anton
Thomson, Marcus
Oort, Bob van
Vittis, Yiorgos
Wade, Chris
Winarni, Nurul L.
Woldeyes, Firew Bekele
Wu, Grace C.
Zerriff, Hisham
 
Subject food systems
modelling
biodiversity
climate change
food security
participatory approaches
sistemas alimentarios
modelización
biodiversidad
fable
 
Description The achievement of several sustainable development goals and the Paris Climate Agreement depends on rapid progress towards sustainable food and land systems in all countries. We have built a flexible, collaborative modeling framework to foster the development of national pathways by local research teams and their integration up to global scale. Local researchers independently customize national models to explore mid-century pathways of the food and land use system transformation in collaboration with stakeholders. An online platform connects the national models, iteratively balances global exports and imports, and aggregates results to the global level. Our results show that actions toward greater sustainability in countries could sum up to 1 Mha net forest gain per year, 950 Mha net gain in the land where natural processes predominate, and an increased CO2 sink of 3.7 GtCO2e yr−1 over the period 2020–2050 compared to current trends, while average food consumption per capita remains above the adequate food requirements in all countries. We show examples of how the global linkage impacts national results and how different assumptions in national pathways impact global results. This modeling setup acknowledges the broad heterogeneity of socio-ecological contexts and the fact that people who live in these different contexts should be empowered to design the future they want. But it also demonstrates to local decision-makers the interconnectedness of our food and land use system and the urgent need for more collaboration to converge local and global priorities.
 
Date 2023-04-01
2023-03-28T10:39:58Z
2023-03-28T10:39:58Z
 
Type Journal Article
 
Identifier Mosnier, A.; Javalera-Rincon, V.; Jones, S.K.; Andrew, R.; Bai, Z.; Baker, J.; Basnet, S.; Boer, C.; Costa, W.; Daloz, A.S.; DeClerck, F.A.; Diaz, M.; Douzal, C.; Howe Fan, A.C.; Fetzer, I.; Frank, F.; Gonzalez-Abraham, C.E.; Habiburrachman, A.H.F.; Immanuel, G.; Harrison, P.A.; Imanirareba, D.; Jha, C.; Jin, X.; Ghosh, R.K.; Leach, N.; Lehtonen, H.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Sern Low, W.; Marcos-Martinez, R.; McCord, G.C.; Molla, K.G.; Monjeau, A.; Navarro-Garcia, J.; Neubauer, R.; Obersteiner, M.; Olguín, M.; Orduna-Cabrera, F.; Pena, A.; Pérez-Guzmán, K.; Potashnikov, V.; Rämö, J.; Ramos, F.M.; Rasche, L.; Gallardo, R.R.; Schmidt-Traub, G.; Selomane, O.; Singh, V.; Smith, A.l.; Soterroni, A.C.; Sperling, F.; Steinhauser, J.; Stevanovic, M.; Strokov, A.; Thomson, M.; van Oort, B.; Vittis, Y.; Wade, C.; Winarni, N.L.; Woldeyes, F.B.; Wu, G.C.; Zerriff, H. (2023) A decentralized approach to model national and global food and land use systems. Environmental Research Letters 18: 045001. 14 p. ISSN: 1748-9326
1748-9326
https://hdl.handle.net/10568/129781
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acc044
 
Language en
 
Rights CC-BY-4.0
Open Access
 
Format 14 p.
application/pdf
 
Publisher IOP publishing
 
Source Environmental Research Letters