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The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models

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Title The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models
 
Creator Valin, Hugo
Sands, Ronald D.
Mensbrugghe, Dominique van der
Nelson, Gerald C.
Ahammad, H.
Blanc, Elodie
Bodirsky, Benjamin L.
Fujimori, Shinichiro
Hasegawa, Tomoko
Havlík, Petr
Heyhoe, Edwina
Kyle, Page
Mason-D'Croz, Daniel
Paltsev S
Rolinski, Susanne
Tabeau, Andrzej
Meijl, Hans van
Lampe M. von
Willenbockel, Dirk
 
Subject climate
agriculture
food security
models
 
Description Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires projecting future food demand. This article reviews demand modeling approaches from 10 global economic models participating in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). We compare food demand projections in 2050 for various regions and agricultural products under harmonized scenarios of socioeconomic development, climate change, and bioenergy expansion. In the reference scenario (SSP2), food demand increases by 59–98% between 2005 and 2050, slightly higher than the most recent FAO projection of 54% from 2005/2007. The range of results is large, in particular for animal calories (between 61% and 144%), caused by differences in demand systems specifications, and in income and price elasticities. The results are more sensitive to socioeconomic assumptions than to climate change or bioenergy scenarios. When considering a world with higher population and lower economic growth (SSP3), consumption per capita drops on average by 9% for crops and 18% for livestock. The maximum effect of climate change on calorie availability is −6% at the global level, and the effect of biofuel production on calorie availability is even smaller.
 
Date 2014-01
2014-12-16T06:37:37Z
2014-12-16T06:37:37Z
 
Type Journal Article
 
Identifier Valin H, Sands RD, van der Mensbrugghe, D, Nelson GC, Ahammad H, Blanc E, Bodirsky B, Fujimori S, Hasegawa T, Havlik P, Heyhoe E, Kyle P, Mason-D'Croz D, Paltsev S, Rolinski S, Tabeau A, van Meijl H, von Lampe M, Willenbockel D. 2014. The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models. Agricultural Economics 45(1): 51–67.
1574-0862
https://hdl.handle.net/10568/52170
https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12089
 
Language en
 
Rights Copyrighted; all rights reserved
Open Access
 
Format p. 51-67
 
Publisher Wiley
 
Source Agricultural Economics