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Information sheet on future climate and impacts in the rural case studies: Tel Hadya, Syria

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Title Information sheet on future climate and impacts in the rural case studies: Tel Hadya, Syria
 
Creator Sommer, Rolf
 
Subject agriculture
climate
simulation models
 
Description ENEA climate model data for the present period were able to reproduce the observed climate of northern Syria, and only required minor correction to remove a bias between the observed and model-derived data. The ENEA model projected a slight increase in annual rainfall in the near future, rather than a decrease as projected by other models.
Crop model based simulations suggest that a climate change affected future with higher temperatures, elevated CO2 and slightly higher annual rainfall would not affect wheat yield significantly in comparison to the present situation. However, there is an apparent trend towards higher inter-annual variability, i.e., more years with exceptionally high or low yields.
Inter-annual variability could be reduced by the application of supplemental irrigation (SI) as a potential adaptation strategy. SI water amounts were comparably modest, but could result in a 2.6 fold increase in yields.
Given the uncertainty of regional climate change projections, this assessment should be expanded to include projections from other CIRCE models, before final conclusions on the impact of climate change on wheat in northern Syria can be drawn.
 
Date 2011-06
2014-08-15T12:13:23Z
2014-08-15T12:13:23Z
 
Type Brief
 
Identifier Sommer R. 2011. Information sheet on future climate and impacts in the rural case studies: Tel Hadya, Syria. European Union: CIRCE (Climate Change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment)
https://hdl.handle.net/10568/42086
LAM_CSA
FP4_PolicyEngagement 
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/projects/circe/TH_Future_impacts_infosheet_Final.doc
 
Language en
 
Rights Open Access
 
Publisher CIRCE (Climate Change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment)