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Linking ecosystem services provisioning with demand for animal-sourced food: an integrated modeling study for Tanzania

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Title Linking ecosystem services provisioning with demand for animal-sourced food: an integrated modeling study for Tanzania
 
Creator Enahoro, Dolapo K.
Kozicka, Marta
Pfeifer, Catherine
Jones, Sarah K.
Nhuong Tran
Chin Yee Chan
Susler, Timothy B.
Gotor, Elisabetta
Rich, Karl M.
 
Subject agriculture
economic growth
food systems
ecosystem services
land use
land management
livestock
models
nitrogen
phosphorus
runoff
policy innovation
sediment
water quality
 
Description Standard tools that can quantitatively track the impacts of higher global demand for animal-sourced food to their local environmental effects in developing countries are largely missing. This paper presents a novel integrated assessment framework that links a model of the global agricultural and food system, a landscape-level environmental impact assessment model, and an ecosystem services simulation model. For Tanzania, this integrated assessment showed that a projected increase in the demand and production of foods of livestock origin with optimistic economic growth between 2010 and 2030 leads to an improvement in food security. However, resulting transitions in land use impact negatively on the future provisioning of ecosystem services, increasing phosphorus, nitrogen, and sediment in runoff and reducing water quality in areas downstream of the agricultural expansion. Losses in ecosystem services are lowest when diversified farming practices are adopted in areas of agricultural land expansion. The role of land management in the environmental impacts of expanded livestock production is highlighted, as is the need for a new generation of analytical tools to inform policy recommendations.
 
Date 2023-03
2023-03-03T20:38:18Z
2023-03-03T20:38:18Z
 
Type Journal Article
 
Identifier Enahoro, D., Kozicka, M., Pfeifer, C., Jones, S.K., Tran, N., Chan, C.Y., Susler, T.B., Gotor, E. and Rich, K.M. 2023. Linking ecosystem services provisioning with demand for animal-sourced food: an integrated modeling study for Tanzania. Regional Environmental Change 23: 48. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-023-02038-x
1436-3798
https://hdl.handle.net/10568/129188
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-023-02038-x
 
Language en
 
Rights CC-BY-4.0
Open Access
 
Format application/pdf
 
Publisher Springer Science and Business Media LLC
 
Source Regional Environmental Change