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Assessing the impact of COVID-19 and related interventions on poverty and economic growth in Pakistan: A structural path analysis

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Title Assessing the impact of COVID-19 and related interventions on poverty and economic growth in Pakistan: A structural path analysis
 
Creator Davies, Stephen
Quershi, Tehseen
Rana, Abdul Wajid
Haider, Zeeshan
Raja, Sehrish
 
Subject coronavirus
coronavirus disease
coronavirinae
covid-19
economic growth
households
poverty
social welfare
development
 
Description This study uses social accounting matrix multipliers and structural path analyses to estimate effects of COVID-19 and related fiscal stimuli on five household groups. The COVID-19 lockdown increased poverty in Pakistan by 15%, which was addressed using a $1.5 billion, digitally implemented Ehsaas Emergency Cash (EEC) program that reached 14.8 million poor households. The study's models show that the largest multipliers from Ehsaas program finance were in agriculture, as a 1 Rupee shock adds 0.225 Rupee income to households. About 30% of that gain was estimated to go to poor farm families. In contrast, our models find that construction and trade growth added three times as much income to poor nonfarm and urban households as to farm households. However, those sectors added only one third as much total income as agriculture. From the structural path analysis, the importance of capital assets in generating income was seen, as was the possibility of greater poverty reduction from sectors with proportionally fewer intermediate inputs and more value added.
 
Date 2023
2023-09-14T20:15:54Z
2023-09-14T20:15:54Z
 
Type Journal Article
 
Identifier Davies, Stephen; Quershi, Tehseen; Rana, Abdul Wajid; Haider, Zeeshan; and Raja, Sehrish. Assessing the impact of COVID-19 and related interventions on poverty and economic growth in Pakistan: A structural path analysis. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy. Article in press. First published online May 7, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1002/aepp.13372
2040-5790
https://hdl.handle.net/10568/131866
https://doi.org/10.1002/aepp.13372
 
Language en
 
Rights CC-BY-NC-ND-4.0
Open Access
 
Publisher Wiley
 
Source Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy