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Near-real-time welfare and livelihood impacts of an active war: Evidence from Ethiopia

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Title Near-real-time welfare and livelihood impacts of an active war: Evidence from Ethiopia
 
Creator Abay, Kibrom A.
Tafere, Kibrom
Berhane, Guush
Chamberlin, Jordan
Abay, Mehari H.
 
Subject armed conflicts
food access
food security
households
livelihoods
resilience
supply chain disruptions
surveys
war
welfare
 
Description Ethiopia recently experienced a large-scale war that lasted for more than two years. Using unique High-Frequency Phone Survey (HFPS) data, which span several months before and after the outbreak of the war, this paper provides evidence on the immediate impacts of the conflict on households’ food security. We also assess potential mechanisms and evaluate impacts on proximate outcomes, including on livelihood activities and access to food markets. We use difference-in-differences and two-way fixed effects estimation to compare trends across affected and unaffected regions (households) and before and after the outbreak of the war. Seven months into the conflict, we find that the war was associated with a 37 percentage points increase in the probability of moderate to severe food insecurity. Using the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), we show that exposure to an additional battle leads to a 1 percentage point increase in the probability of moderate or severe food insecurity. The conflict was associated with significant reduction in access to food through supply chain disruptions and by curtailing non-farm livelihood activities. Non-farm and wage related activities were affected the most, whereas farming activities were relatively more resilient. Our estimates, which likely underestimate the true average effects on the population, constitute novel evidence on the near-real-time impacts of large-scale conflict. Our work highlights the potential of HFPS to monitor active and large-scale conflicts, especially in contexts where conventional data sources are not immediately available.
 
Date 2023
2023-09-22T17:59:34Z
2023-09-22T17:59:34Z
 
Type Journal Article
 
Identifier Abay, Kibrom A.; Tafere, Kibrom; Berhane, Guush; Chamberlin, Jordan; and Abay, Mehari H. 2023. Near-real-time welfare and livelihood impacts of an active war: Evidence from Ethiopia. Food Policy 119(August 2023): 102526. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2023.102526
0306-9192
https://hdl.handle.net/10568/131974
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2023.102526
 
Language en
 
Relation Food Policy
 
Rights CC-BY-4.0
Open Access
 
Format 102526
 
Publisher Elsevier
 
Source Food Policy